I think the “can’t pass, can’t” shoot talk is pretty nuts. He shot 36% on about 6 threes a game. His FT shooting is perfectly fine. He posted nearly a 20% assist rate, which is higher than any Michigan shooting guard in the Beilein/Howard era save Levert’s abbreviated senior year. His ability to get to the line is also going to drive efficiency.
He may be a bust, any of them may be. I think at #5, I’m hard-pressed to see anyone with the same star potential.
Just FWIW, but assist rates are very dependent on offensive system. It can be a hard stat to compare across teams, etc.
Whether it is a Princeton offense, PNR heavy offense, post-up heavy offense, assist happy scorekeeper, transition-heavy offense, etc.
I think the Ja Morant comparisons to Ivey are out of control because Morant was making incredible reads and passes in high school. Ivey has a ton of room to grow there and his decision making process as a ball handler needs work… but I also think it is pretty important to realize that he isn’t in a Michigan-style ball screen offense so there’s probably a lot of room to improve and grow in a better system.
The comparison I like is Backcourt Jaylen Brown. #2 scorer who isn’t much of a passer although not terrible, adequate 3 shooter, lethal in transition or with a step, maybe slightly iffy handle.
Interesting piece.
I don’t like the Wade comp for Ivey because Wade was lethal with the mid-range pull up. Ivey either struggles or just didn’t shoot a lot from mid-range.
Right now I think he’s Hami Diallo with a better shot, more wiggle and maybe less of a motor. (That could be the description of a really good player, I don’t know yet.)
Well, nobody shoots mid-range pull-ups in 2022.
Your best on-ball creators need to be able to make mid-range pullups though.
In a world where he plays with Cade, I’m not sure he’s the best on-ball creator.
I will grant: according to Torvik, he shot over 100 “far 2’s” (I don’t know how many were pull ups, or what the definition of that shot is) - and did so rather poorly (under 30%)
Drop Coverage!
I have sort of assumed that the fact that Painter never utilized Ivey more heavily as a primary creator and/or ball screen guy says something about Ivey…I’ve usually viewed Painter as an elite X’s and O’s guy and a guy who unlocked the best versions of his best players pretty consistently.
He runs an offensive system that does not include a lot of ball screens. I think even when they went to more PNR stuff, it was clear that it was because of Ivey not because it is what they do.
It’s less nuts than the Morant comparisons, Morant has always been an elite vision guy. Ivey is so far from that.
Good ones do
Here’s a list of Purdue guards going back a decade that had a higher Assist % than Ivey:
Nojel Eastern
Carsen Edwards
Dakota Mathias
Vince Edwards
PJ Thompson
Johnny Hill
Ronnie Johnson
Terone Johnson
Lewis Jackson
ETwaun Moore
Ivey had a higher usage rate than all of them but Carsen. I don’t blame the system entirely for him being low in AST%, maybe personnel last year limited him a bit but I just don’t see him as a high level playmaker for others.
I just don’t think assist rate is the stat to try to project what he becomes. It tells you about what he did on that team in that role.
I also don’t think his assist rate relates to the ball screen stuff really at all.
As a program, Purdue runs fewer ball screens than basically any team in the country. They were 344th in PNR plays per game last year.
He just hasn’t had the reps in ball screen situations that he would have had if he were at any sort of ball screen heavy school. That’s completely unrelated from who is getting assists when Purdue runs its sets.
I’m a huge stats guy for analyzing teams, players, games, etc. but from a draft POV so many individual stats are role dependent, team dependent, and drastically different than what players will be asked to do at the next level.
You can watch Ivey’s ball screens and say that he doesn’t have great feel right now (and I agree) but I think at his age and stage in development, that’s not a big issue when you consider that he isn’t focused on that in Purdue’s system. If he were in MIchigan’s system and was struggling… that’s different IMO.
While I have my favorites (Shaedon and Ivey), I won’t be upset with any of 6 guys that the Pistons might take (the first two, Murray, Math, Griffin, or a Paolo slide) at #5. I just wish that the draft was next week.
Boy do I hope Schmitz hates everyone at 7 and loves Jerami Grant.
Unfortunately, Schmitz seems like a smart guy. NGL I would be absolutely furious if I was a Portland fan and the Blazers traded the pick for Jerami Grant. If I’m the Blazers, I trade the 7th pick to offload an expiring contract and wait for the Brooklyn implosion this summer to try to reel in KD and have him joing Lillard.
Blazers leadership seems hellbent on contending again next year, building another team around two tiny guards. If only they had experience with such a setup in the recent past!
I agree. Grant for the 7th pick would be robbery by Detroit. I was listening to the Bun & Cardigan today and Laz Jackson was on instead of JEIII. He said he didn’t want to claim to be an insider, but had somebody tell him the Blazers are looking to trade the pick, but had 4 guys ahead of Grant on their wish list. He wouldn’t name them because he didn’t want to have his name associated with it, but did say two of the guys are out of the question.