I did not like the signing at the time and they definitely overpaid to land him which is my point.
Also, you’re ignoring at countless of mid tier FAs that the Pistons had to overpay just to sign them. It’s not a destination FA.
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Uncertainty plays into bust factor.
Yeah, here are the largest contracts signed by guys who switched teams, by year:
2021 - Kyle Lowry (3 years, $85 million)
2020 - Gordon Hayward (4 years, $120 million)
I’m pretty sure the last 2 max players to switch teams were Kyrie in 2019 and Durant in 2016 to the Warriors.
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Did they overpay for Gordon (BTW, I wasn’t a big fan of the signing either. @hack, on the other hand…) that summer?
This article says: “Ben Gordon, the third overall pick by the Bulls in 2004, has been wanting out of Chicago the past two years. He turned down two $50 million-plus offers. He put on a remarkable display this year against the then-defending champion Boston Celtics, helping the Bulls push that series to seven games.”
The Pistons signed him for 5/$55M, so it wasn’t much more (if any) than what’s being reported there. I’m sure they overpaid for Charlie V, though.
Even then, that’s like less than half of the annual max at the time. If he was the peak FA, that’s pretty slim pickings. In all sincerity, the only title team I can summon off the top of my head that was built in FA in large part is the Heatles and the bubble Lakers.
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Yeah. That summer wasn’t exactly like 2010, with LeBron, Wade, Bosh, etc. Still, top of the market should have multiple suitors, and a few guys have chosen Detroit.
The perception with a lot of people is that they can’t land a top guy, and I think (and have pointed out) there are exceptions. It may take a certain guy who has a different mindset, but it isn’t the impossibility that some fans buy into.
Oh, I might put Shaq’s Lakers teams as a qualifier for a team built in FA. Yes, they drafted Kobe, but Shaq was the driving force for those 3 titles. I think if you count LeBron’s title as a FA build, then Shaq’s titles qualify too.
But, if your point is that building a championship team through free-agency is a rarity, then I agree.
2004 FA signing is far different than current FA signing. Paying 10-11 mil per is a lot of money at the time where as 10-11 mil per is the standard for most vets.
Who’s talking about 2004?
IIRC, Dumars had a deal in place to send Rip Hamilton for Tyson Chandler. That would have given the Pistons a lineup of Chauncey, Stuckey, Tayshaun, Sheed and Chandler (with McDyess and Afflalo off the bench). But it was nixed because the team was in the midst of being sold.
Everything fell apart after that.
No, it doesn’t.
A players chance of busting is what it is. Having more information does not in any way change what that probability is, it merelys helps us better approximate it.
This series convinced me Gordon could be your alpha scorer. Obviously I was pretty wrong about that…
Jabari Parker only to injury though
You did bc you’re the one who brought up Gordon signing
We agree to disagree. Uncertainty plays a big role in bust chance and you clearly don’t.
That’s why I argued that Karen Davidson did more harm to the Pistons than Dumars bc Dumars was handcuffed at the time
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So you’re of the belief that something other than physical, mental, and basketball abilities impact a players bust risk? Because the qualities of those thing do not change for any of the players whether we’ve seen them play in college or not. That part of the equation is not impacted by that whatsoever.
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Everything is a factor. Not knowing if Sharpe is capable of doing things on the court at a high level is plays a role to the bust factor. Physical, mental and basketball abilities aren’t impacted by it but it does play a role on knowing if a player is suited for the NBA level. It helps to be athletic but we’ve seen a bunch of athletes who couldn’t hack it in the NBA or at least be a passable rotation player (Also, why ceiling should not relate to athleticism which people keeps equating it with a player’s ceiling). Uncertainly increases bust factor IMO.
Difference between Sharpe and Kuminga like I said in this thread is Kuminga is a known quantity because he played in the G-League so we know what he’s capable of and what he needs to work on. In Sharpe’s case, we really don’t know because he hasn’t played in live competition. Kuminga’s bust factor are much lower for this reason.
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Shanon is capable of doing what he is capable of doing. Whether we know what that is or not does not change what he is capable of doing.
Our lack of knowledge only impacts the perceived risk, it does not in any way change the true risk.
Pretty much every single lottery pick today has played against higher level competition than LeBron did in HS. Despite that, LeBron had less bust risk than any of them.
It’s entirely possible Sharpe has the highest bust risk amongst the top 5 prospects. It is just impossible for anybody to state that as a fact right now, because we won’t ever be able to say until we see how these guys perform in the NBA.
We don’t even know if Sharpe is capable of what he’s doing yet you seem to think he is despite having zero evidence of it thus the higher bust factor. It’s not really impossible to state as a fact when the risk is higher hence higher bust factor.
I’m going to drop it because we’re just going to talk in circles.
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Everybody forgets how Kobe Bryant stunk up the place his first two years straight out of high school. And although he was drafted in the teens I bet every team who passed on him are kicking themselves. Did the Lakers know what he was capable of even though he did not show it in college.
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