Was curious, was looking at the Pistons on/off performances so far in terms of net rating. Won’t bother commenting, but, out of guys who are over 200 minutes, the best offensive on/off ratings:
Offensive
Trey Lyles - +8.2 per 100 possesions
Kelly Olynyk +5.9
Josh Jackson +4.4
Corey Joseph +3.4
Frank Jackson +3
(Stewart, at -8.2 is last)
Defensive
Hamidou Diallo +4.8
Frank Jackson +3.2
Jerami Grant +2.6
Cade Cunningham +2.2
Isaiah Stewart +1.6
Josh Jackson, at -7.9 is the worst on defense
Total (all players over 200 minutes listed here)
Frank Jackson & Hamidou Diallo +6.2
Trey Lyles +5.2
Corey Joseph +3.5
Cade Cunningham +1.6
Kelly Olynyk +0.6
Josh Jackson -3.6
Jerami Grant -4.3
Killian Hayes -6.4
Isaiah Stewart -6.5
Saddiq Bey -9.7
They have 1 lineup that has played over 30 minutes this year that is net positive: Bey, Diallo, Frank Jackson, Joseph, Olynyk. Their most used lineup (Cunningham, Hayes, Bey, Grant, Stewart) is -19.2 per 100 possessions, and their 2nd most (same with Joseph in for Hayes) in is -14.6. Looking at their most effective 3-man and 2-man combinations, Joseph is in basically all despite not offering much himself from what I can tell.
Large impression here is that the Pistons starting 5 is really shooting challenged (especially the way Bey is shooting), and the bench lineups have more there. So I’m not shocked that the positive offensive players are basically all shooters, and two are bigs who will take and make 3s (Olynyk/Lyles). Josh Jackson is the only offensive player who doesn’t fit this bill, but he plays with the bench lineups that shoot better, so I’d tend to think the on/off for him at least doesn’t have much to do with his actual performance. Also, generally, it seems like Diallo’s newfound 20+ mpg role is justified.
Finally, given I’m a big Saben Lee guy, I just want to note that in his 150 minutes, the Pistons are 16.6 net points per 100 possessions better than when he sits.
Lyles is a frustrating player. A Brandon Johns like tendency to pump fake on relatively open threes for slow drives that result in pull ups or blocked shots at the rim.
Context of minutes would be interesting to look at there. As many of the positives are the second unit who are going against the opposing teams’ second units - and our second unit has been a strength going back to last season. Negatives are all the young guys too. Which isn’t that surprising considering they’re the ones that still have the lost to develop.
Biggest curiosities this season have been Bey’s shooting and Stewart’s hesitancy shooting this year. They’ve tried to get Bey to expand his game - to little success - and shrink Stew’s game - his jumper looked promising late last season and it hasn’t really been a part of his game this year for whatever reason.
Cade is actually positive in lineups where Joseph and Frank Jackson replace Hayes and Bey and Cade plays at the 3, and there is even a +22 lineup where Jackson replaces Hayes and Diallo replaces Bey.
Basically, the starting 5 minus Bey or Hayes works pretty well.
Definitely and I think Cade and Olynyk would have been fantastic together and raised the first team’s numbers overall. But the second unit is also going against lesser defenders on most nights, which helps. Bey and Stewart are playing against better players and they’re young and still developing, which will exacerbate the numbers IMO.
Yeah, to a degree. The starters, when you remove either Bey or Hayes (better when both) are actually a net neutral lineup (which is pretty decent for the Pistons).
At this point now though I really just want the Pistons to keep losing. So put the most competitive lineups possible together while still losing. Time to tank for Paolo, Chet or Jabari Smith.
I think Weaver might like Jaden Ivey if they’re in position to draft at top 5. Jaden Ivey has taken his game into the next level as a player. Super explosive and if his 3 pt jumper is legit, he would give them an explosive option at SG. I do think Pistons need a 3 and D wing player as well. Their shooting overall is putrid this season.
Finally broke the losing streak last night against the Heat (although one without Bam and Herro). After having a miserable shooting season this year, Bey has shot 38% from deep in the month of December. Outside of one 0-5 night against Brooklyn, he’s shot at least 33% from deep on 4+ attempts in the other seven games.
Cade has turned the corner IMO, shooting 42% from deep in December and has 44% overall. Both far better than his numbers the rest of the season. Still too many turnovers, but that is going to happen when he’s the only real playmaker healthy right now.
Hayes is still up and down but he attacked the basket last night and finished in the lane, something that he has struggled with. Still going to take time with him and his shooting has fallen off from his good start. Defense is still his strength. Still not sure what his best role is on this team and while I am encouraged by his performance, it still wouldn’t be a reason not to draft Ivey if that’s the BPA in July.
One of the biggest developments has been Diallo. He’s been getting about 10 more minutes per game in December than he was the rest of the season. He played great last night, with a couple and-1s. He’s an interesting piece. I’d be curious to see his shot profile as he’s shooting 50+% from the field.
I think Kuminga probably does have a higher ceiling. Very athletic. Cade will never have a KD or Giannis level ceiling because he doesn’t have the athleticism. But I think Cade is faaaaar more likely to reach his ceiling than Kuminga since the latter has a long ways to go in terms of skill development.
