Man. Imagine if Dylan was covering the Pistons instead of Michigan hoops.
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Can you maybe use different phrasing than āisnāt goodā? When youāre also saying Kelly Olynyk has been the best Piston in 4 years, I think you need to acknowledge youāre being a tad bit unfair and uneven in your takes.
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Itās funny because like four months ago I was this unpopular because I said Troy Weaver was a ābottom third of the NBAā GM and that seems overly kind!
The Pistons played positive net rating hoops with Olynyk on the floor for his brief tenure (turns out having a guy who can shoot matters). Am I being cheeky that heās āthe bestā on a night that he led a bad team without their four best players to a W with like 35 points? Yes, Iāll admit to that.
I am genuinely not sure what Cade is. I will try to clear it up. This isnāt an attempt to troll, or gloat or whatever. I would not sign him to a max extension.
I have been lower on him for at least a year than most here (thinking he may become a low level all star), because his extreme inefficiency (literally the least efficient 30% usage player in the NBA, that isnāt my opinion or hyperbole, itās fact when using true shooting and assist/TO ratio) hasnāt abated at all.
He is their best player, he is being underserved by the roster, etc., but I think this idea that he is a star being let down by everyone else misses the point that the Pistons are historically bad, and in order for that to be the case, the guy using 34% of possessions in 35+ minutes a game HAS to be playing badly. Could he be helped by better teammates? Yes obviously. Iām well aware of how difficult the circumstances are for him. But weāve seen sure-fire all-stars (like a 22 year old Shai Gilgeous Alexander) able to lift a team like that to run-of-the-mill ābadā. He struggles to reach the rim, he struggles to finish there, he struggles to get to the line, and his three point shooting on every flavor of three (off the dribble, spot up, āwide openā, and off a screen) is lower than 40th percentile over his career. Itās really hard to be efficient like that!
So look is he bad as a 32% usage player? Yeah, he is. Most guys with that usage are really good otherwise they wouldnāt have it. Is he bad in absolute terms? Probably not, but then the question becomes what he should be.
At the very least, I think his performance career to date suggests he needs a major cut to usage (down to mid 20ās-ish), and that obviously changes his perceived place in the hierarchy of a future Pistons winner (to 2nd or 3rd guy at best). This off season I reference Khris Middleton as an archetype for him a TON, and I still think that is a great outcome for him. Are you going to build a champion around Middleton? No. Can you build a champion WITH Middleton in a prominent role? Yes , it literally happened.
Fans and even front offices get captured by their affection for guys like this - people who had the mantle of franchise savior put on them, and are often consequently the last people to see them for what they are. I think investing a max salary spot (yes a rookie extension max is lower) on a player who is not The Guy, is a big mistake, and I think his performance this year is shrieking in bold letters that he cannot be used like this.
Everyone wants to point fingers for who is to blame and lord knows there are many places to point, but being this bad requires a near complete failure at every level (or, a conscious tank and itās still hard to be this bad) - ownership, front office, coaching, and, yes, playing.
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Many Thoughts. First I see two legit starters on this team Cade and Duren. Everyone else is bench strength at best and that is on Weaver. Ausar Thompson = incomplete. The team as a whole is a turnover machine. After Duren the bigs have the worst basketball sense I have ever seen. The team keeping a player in front of them for more than two dribbles is a problem. I donāt see most of these problems as a Monty Williams issue. Cade and Ivey is just not a good match as a guard tandem but it is what it is. When Duren was not in the game the Pistons were dominated on the boards. Not sure if I saw a single rebound from any other big except Duren. Not having a consistent starting lineup because of injuries does not help.
37 of his points came in the 2nd half. He was on a heater, for sure.
Stew had 11 rebounds, with probably 4 or 5 coming when we built a 14-point lead in the first quarter. Everyone was clicking at the start. Then the bench came in and the Nets had a lead by halftime.
Youāve definitely been consistent that Cade had the look/feel of a Top 25 NBA player, but probably not a top 10 or top 5 player.
Itās hard for me to figure out what to do with any of his numbers you cite this year, when you have also been consistently (and correctly) adament that the surrounding cast is of little help to him.
I think the idea that he might still become a āstarā, and the absolute facts youāve provided that heās not playing winning basketball on an awful team, are not mutually exclusive. Cade is definitely not lifting the team to victories (duh lol), but would 22-year old SGA be leading the team to a dramatically better season? Maybe, but probably not to a point where we would think he was a star yet either. Also - to be fair - 22 year old SGA had 150+ games under his belt going into his 3rd season, whereas Cade had like 75? Cade still seems to be trending better by the week (eyeball test, though the basic counting stats probably support that as well).
I guess this is just a long end-of-a-useless-workday post by me, whereas my main point is that the verdict is still very much out on whether you can build a winning franchise with Cade as the #1 guyā¦ and while I certainly think you have had legitimate reasons to question it, I donāt think itās time to start making conclusions.
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In Cadeās best season, he will be the
- 1-15th best player in the league
- 16-30th
- 31-60th
- 61-90th
- 91-150th
- 151th or worse
0
voters
i wonder how many guys in the league have seasons where theyāre top 15. like are there 25 guys in the league next year who will eventually have a top 15 season? 50? 100? dunno how sticky it is
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I had ā25-35ā in my head, so idk
If you think itās more likely heād be better than that at his very best than worse than that, go w the higher tier.
If we loosely say ātop 15ā is the All NBA teams (we can quibble with who did or didnāt make it, positional issues can screw it some (what if the 4th best center is AWESOME - like Rudy Gobert has never made it, but probably has been a top 15 guy at some point), but itās probably close enough). Iād argue itās pretty good because I think most people would add more stat-heavy guards, but like, if youāre the 8th best guard are you really top 15?
Last year, 9 of the 15 were on at least their 2nd. and 8 of those 9 were on at last their 3rd. The year before, 12 of the 15 had made All-NBA before. The year before, 13 of 15 had made them before.
So, a fair amount of familiar faces. But like, Julius Randle has 2 All-NBAās and Iām not sure heās ever been top 15.
So it seems likeā¦there may be 20-22 guys in the league who have or will make All-NBA (top 15) (this is my gut conclusion)
I just want to say if the Pistons traded for Miles Bridges I would be done with this organization.
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pistons are gonna win this game tonight btw. if Iām wrong none of you will ever know because the forumās misbehaving anyway
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It is supposed to be working now!
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Itās happening!
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If they beat the Celtics Iāll die laughing
Itās not happening!!!
I think the way to think about it is draft cohorts. Just for some sample size, I looked at the 2013, 2014, and 2015 NBA drafts.
Thatās 180 total picks. Of that, 136 played at least 2 seasons and only 65 have averaged over 20 minutes per game for their careers. Just eyeballing it, I think thatās a good starter-ish line. So 1/3 of draftees have some kind of starter-level upside.
Of that 65, just 12 ever played in an All Star game and 8 were ever All NBA. 3 were MVPs.
So if Cade is, in your estimate, something like the top 10-20% of the top third of minutes getters in his cohort, pretty good chance heās an All Star and has a decent shot at grabbing All NBA.
Obviously, this is a rule of thumb type thing. But doing the stack rank exercise is probably a good one if you want to figure out what Cadeās upside looks like. Cade is 19th in his draft class in BPM and 14th in VORP. So, seems obviousāduhāthat heās a starter. But not at all obvious that heās got the upside Pistons fans are hoping for.
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Man Bojan has had a couple of chances to get the Pistons the lead and heās missed. Pistons are scrapping