KD fits well in that 7-footers with leg injuries group. KG and Giannis (the other 6’12" guys I can think of) either stayed or have stayed pretty healthy.
Is it more an issue with the skinny 7-footers? Like Chet this past year. Ralph Sampson, back in the day, was fairly thin. I’d imagine that the twig-legged sorts are more prone to getting hurt. Victor does qualify for that group, and Sampson is a fairly good comp. He was a big who could run the floor and had a nice touch.
I also think that graph shouldn’t stop at 7 foot+. I’d guess that being 7’2" or 7’3" (or taller) increases the risk.
I agree. I’m not sure where the line is, but once you get past maybe 72 or so, it seems like the risk is even higher. As for wemby specifically, he looks thick compared to Chet.
I think Jaden and Cade can play together and to me makes Hendricks most intriguing as he pairs best providing the best spacing at the 4 and small ball 5.
This pushes Stew to less minutes or be traded or who knows and Duren doesn’t pan out.
Regardless I think it’s gotta be one of Whitmore, Walker or Hendricks IMO
It doesn’t stop at 7 feet, it’s just bucketed to 7 feet+. There’s already sample size issue w 7 footers to begin with so being able to cut it again at, I dk, 7’2’’ doesn’t seem particularly doable. This is why I wanted a model instead of buckets. Not that hard to plot % games missed predicted by the model by height.
And KD is gonna have a like 17 or whatever year career, I don’t think he’s a particularly good example of increased injury risk.
I suspect too there are cohort problems with this study.
“Since 2000, 97 players 6’9” and taller have been drafted by teams with lottery selections (the first 13 or 14 picks in the draft, depending on the year). These players missed 17.9 percent of their potential NBA games (regular season and postseason, where appropriate) to injury over the course of their careers”
I would imagine every subsequent season you play after, say, your age 26 season you increase your injury risk substantially. And even if your risk stays even, the more seasons you play, the greater the odds that you miss a full season with some injury simply bc you’re rolling the dice again.
I dk, I’m not a hazard model guy, and I don’t find it super hard to believe that the taller you are the more likely you are to get injured, but I also don’t think it’s a slam dunk case. In particular, it’s worth considering why that would be and my guess there is the issue is that athleticism is less and less selected for the taller you get. A lot of the elite coordination and proprioception and whatnot that NBA athletes possess helps them at least in part to protect themselves from injury. Folks seem to think it’s the especially talls that are extra at risk and that could be part of why.
Again, I am not saying that they can’t fit together, I’m saying that we haven’t seen it happen and thus don’t know it will (I’m not giving my (worthless) opinion!). I do think that you could trade either today for a pretty solid return (I’m not saying they should do this) if it’s decided they’re better off having a max guard and a max forward instead of two max guards.
Solid, yes. Not great. Cade’s a wing-sized player, so I don’t know that “two max guards” is a helpful distinction. It could be. The perjorative term there might apply if both players are 6-2 or shorter? Either way, if you miss on a #1 pick you’re set back for years anyways, so Cade has to hit. And since lottery luck is what it is for the Pistons, Ivey does too. Otherwise you’re basically bumping along in the lottery until you get lucky again.
What I do think is that there’s very attractive talent at the non-star level here that we can add to the team and who will go a long way to helping Cade and Ivey do their thing by stretching the floor. We badly need a wing; the guys available are all wings. Hendricks given his defense really appeals to me. PJ Tucker sees the floor on the regular in the playoffs but Duncan Robinson doesn’t. Hendricks looks like the ideal cross between the two – more or less. It’s not a transformative pick, but it makes a ton of sense to add that player to a team with Cade, Ivey and Duren.
fwiw, it’s entirely possible to draft a star #6, and I don’t see why Hendricks or Whitmore would categorically not be that (Whitmore was like the #2 dude in the class like 10 months ago)
It’s true for any draft. You just need to find the right player. It’s not the end of the world that they missed out on the top 3 picks. I agree that both could be stars and both are young at 19 plus they both fit the roster needs as well as the backcourt with Cade and Jaden.
Yeah, the ultimate lottery high floor/low ceiling guy is Grady “Richard”, imo. I think we’re pretty sure his shooting is going to play, he has the athleticism to probably not die defensively, and great size…but he’s not going to be an all-nba guy.
My board among players who could be there at #5 is:
Whitmore
Hendricks
Walker
Thompsons
It is highly unlikely, but there is also a non-zero chance where teams fall in love with Whitmore and Amen (or someone else) and Miller is somehow available at 5.
Definitely not out of the realm of possibilities that Miller is there at 5. He had a poor tourney, is older than a player like Whitmore, and who knows how teams feel about the gun situation after interviewing him.
I like Ausar for the pistons more than Amen. But Amen seems to be the higher rated prospect. Amen needs the ball in his hands more than Ausar, but I’m not sure the pistons want to take the ball away from Cade and Ivey just so Amen can have it. All 3 are best with the ball in their hands, but there is only one ball to go around.
I also worry about the Thompsons though with their shooting concerns and only having played in OTE. They feel like high upside, lower floor players, which is fine for bad teams drafting that high. The athleticism, defense and playmaking are obviously the things to like.
The OTE thing is true in the sense that it was bad comp but I’m not sure that you can really use that to say something long term about either guy.
Lack of shooting is a fair concern. I just think people are over correcting for the OTE thing. Yes it makes the eval harder but doesn’t make either player worse.
Also I assume Kevin Ollie would be familiar with both?
Agreed. It’s just more of an unknown when doing your evaluation. If you’re a good GM/scout, you just have to trust what your eyes tell you more than actual proven on court production.
Detroit needs shooting badly. Troy Weaver seems to really be pushing the two-big lineup which is why some combination of Duren/Bagley/Wiseman/Stewart are on the floor at all times. Cade hasn’t been a good NBA 3 point shooter (in limited games). It’s just not feasible to me to add a Thompson who has looked terrible on wide open shots in their time in OTE.
I think taking a Taylor Hendricks as a 4 and having better spacing with Cade-Ivey-Boganovic-Hendricks-Duren makes more sense than a Thompson and having Cade-Ivey-Thompson-(Stewart/Bagley/Wiseman)-Duren.
