Pistons have 6 road wins out of 11 total wins.
And now theyāre 4-0 against the Warriors and T-Wolves. Okay, sweeping Minnesota isnāt a great accomplishment but they did do it without Cade, Duren, Stewart, and Bagley. Minny didnāt have KAT.
Nerlens Noel was the only guy we had out there over 6ā7" and he actually took over on the defensive end in the 3rd quarter. I think all 4 of his blocked shots came in the 3rd.
Another nice thing is that Isaiah Livers returned and played about 10-12 minutes. He hit one 3 and didnāt look too rusty.
Killian airballed 3 3-pointers but still wound up shooting 7-14 overall and posterized Gobert. He had 18 points and 9 assists. Jaden Ivey had 18 points and 8 assists.
Considering they got smoked in Philly last night, I was very surprised (especially after starting down 10-0) that they were able to come back the next night after a late flight home and blew out anyone.
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Roughly 1/2 way through, here is a ranking of Pistons players in on off splits (ie, are they better or worse when they play):
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Alec Burks - +11.8 pp100 (+8.2 offense, +3.5 defense). Burks is one of 2 players this year whose presence pushes them to outplaying their opponent
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Hamidou Diallo - +11.5 (+1.1 offense, +10.4 defense). Hami is the other one who is net positive
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Corey Joseph - +7.1 (+5.1 offense, +2 defense)
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Saddiq Bey - +2 (+3.2 offense, -1.2 defense)
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Kevin Knox - +0.8 (-4.1 offense, +4.9 defense)
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Jalen Duren - +0.6 (-1.5 offense, +0.9 defense)
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Isaiah Stewart - +0.4 (+0.8 offense, -0.4 defense)
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Cade Cunningham - 0.0 (-0.7 offense, +0.7 defense)
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Bojan Bogdonovic - -2.2 (+4.1 offense, -6.3 defense)
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Killian Hayes - -6.2 (-4 offense, -2.2 defense)
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Marvin Bagley III - -6.8 (-2.2 offense, -4.6 defense)
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Isaiah Livers - -8.3 (-4.5 offense, -3.8 defense)
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Jaden Ivey - -12.6 (-6.2 offense, -6.4 defense)
Unsurprisingly, there is a bench lineup (44 minutes) that has been a nuclear +23 (Burks, Hami, Duren, Joseph, Knox). There is also a combo bench/starter group of Burks, Hayes, Bey, Stewart, Duren that is similarly strong.
The worst lineup is Hayes, Ivey, Bogie, Bagley, Stewart (-26), and even worse if you pull Bagley for Bey (-31)
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Probably a little unfair doing it this way because it is obvious that the Pistons starting lineup is bad compared to other NBA starting lineups. Those bench players are playing against other benches most of the time and not starters so naturally their on/off splits are going to look better.
If you flip flopped the two and had Burks, Hami, Duren, Joseph, Knox play against starting lineups and Hayes, Ivey, Bogie, Bagley, Stewart play against bench players, Iām sure the numbers would look drastically different.
Fact is, many of Pistons current starters would play a solid role for good teams off the bench. Pistons just donāt have enough talent so they are in over their heads as starters right now.
To be fair, at the start of the year, the complaint was that the bench was bombing them out of games, and the starters were hanging in.
I do think there is some applicability especially with Burks, who has raised a pretty bad starting lineup to pretty good in the minutes he plays with them.
I do think that for a guy like Bagley, who is a net negative on mostly bench lineupsā¦its not good.
I think if you contextualize it for how theyāre playing āin their roleā there is use. They have some bench guys who are apparently useful bench players. They have starters who areā¦possibly useful bench players.
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The bench was awful early but Burks was injured. He really solidified things. Hami has played better lately since they started using him like a PF (or the last two games as a C) offensively.
I mean, thereās a pretty large statistical enterprised built around the idea thatās not true, with all due respect to Eric
I was also attempting to just show how players effect team performance - Bogie has been a far better offensive player in on/off previously in his careerā¦obviously thatās because he played with better offensive players/system in Utah.
I think the Pistons could have a big leap next year both from the young players getting better but also having more proven veterans on the bench. The Pistons have a lot of high-upside flyers (Bagley, Hami, Knox, and you could maybe even say Killian if can call a lottery pick a flyer) coming off the bench where most playoff teams have proven NBA rotation players.
Theyāll make a leap with more Alec Burkses and Bojan Bogdanoviches coming off the bench.
Yes, I know what the number is, I thought that saying they are on/off it was clear enough (ie, they are 11.8 points better when he plays than when he does not)
anyway
I think the on/off (smarter people adjust them in ways I canāt expain obviously) numbers have some value in a large enough sample. Like, we are told a ton about Killianās defense, and I wonāt get into the specifics of his play, but I tend to think defense is among the least important of an NBA PGās responsbilities, and the fact that his (maybe good!) individual defense doesnāt produce good or even improved team defense is interesting.
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At the start of the year, Killian was an atrocity off the bench, shooting under 20% for the first dozen games. I think they were without Livers & Bags for about 10 games, and Burks for even longer. The only bench guy who I can think of that was actually playing well was CoJo. Now, everyone else has either come back or improved, except for CoJo, whoās seems to have taken over Killianās shooting %.
We need to get a pic for Kris Murray right? Getting him outside the lottery feels like it would be a real good idea. I get that heās a year older than Keegan was last year, and this yearās draft is much stronger. Still.
Pistons will have a high second round pick they could probably package to move up.
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Pistons are heading into game 50 nicely positioned for tankathon 2.5 games ahead of the 4th losers (Spurs at the moment) and only half a game behind Houston for pole position. This is a major opportunity and it seems like things are going very well, but it makes me wonder, what are the key tactical choices to make in the weeks before trade deadline? I assume the main player who is generating unwanted wins is Bogdanovic, who seems like he is really playing well. Is he tradable or is he a long term part of team? I canāt really figure that out - I suppose it depends what you could get for him. i also see maybe Burks able to generate draft equity if a playoff team has a timely injury, but Iām not sure there is much more that helps from either Tankathon or draft equity perspectives. Thanks!
Seems like the first Bojan could deliver would most likely be the Lakers first in 27? Not immediate help, but Iām OK with that.
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Maybe something w Dallas, which needs to make a push? Maxi Kleber is out indefinitely, Finney-Smith is missing time ā¦ Bogdanovic would kill for them (and play w a countryman, I think?). Bertans and a 2nd rounder or two come back?
Iām definitely in line with the reported idea that an unprotected first-rounder does the trick. Get those first-round picks esp. since weāve traded away some of our own, and thatās a loss of flexibility. We may need to pull some big trades in the next few years.
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Bojan and the 2nd round pick for John Collins? Iām guessing Atlanta wouldnāt do it because it wouldnāt save them that much money.
They extended Bojan in October, so they canāt trade him.
I think they can because I keep seeing him in trade rumors from legit journalists.