Not sure how me saying Detroit stinks and aren’t in a position to draft a bench player at 5 means I need to wake up.
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I think Cades impact is like 4-5 games and that’s not an indictment of him, it’s a statement as to how many wins any player is worth (edit: way too generous, at least last year)
The numbers are goofy, but 538 does their “above replacement” thing and 15 would be Nikola Jokic this year
If you’re arguing that Cades absence made them light the entire season on fire and thus resulted in a cascade of nonsense I can buy that, but this team was 3-9 when he got hurt
I’m a litttttle skeptical of the tanking thing though.
I wrote a longer, unorganized thing earlier. But this team won 24% of their games prior to the 2-18 finish, and 25% in the 12 games Cade played. 25% win percerntage is 21 wins.
I think mid 20’s is a pretty realistic bar for next year all that considered.
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Excellent point and reasonably well said, but in this crowd the correct anecdote has something to do with Sparky Anderson, AL MVP and Vy Young Award winner Willie Hernandez and 1984 World Champion Detroit Tigers. Willie was out of baseball less than five years later.
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Cade’s rookie year, they went 18-31 after winning only 5 games in October through December.
Hard to say what is and isn’t a floor or ceiling with teams at the bottom. Sometimes they’re not trying
to win and their rosters also aren’t built to sustain a key injury for long periods of time. Pistons probably win somewhere in the mid 20s if Cade was healthy and the team isn’t trying to tank the last month. Would they have? Who knows.
Let’s say they get Harrison Barnes. Average defender and solid shooter on the wing does wonders for them. Healthy Cade does wonders for them. Second year Ivey and Duren. Beef Stew keeps developing the jumper. If they keep Bogey the whole season? Burks? Thompson is a wild card. Sasser should provide shooting and defense off the bench. What’s the floor and ceiling?
I think saying the max is 30 wins and the floor is 20 wins is silly. Lots can happen and the roster isn’t finalized yet.
The Pistons roster in such a place that a healthy Cade or someone like Harrison Barnes has a cascading effect down the roster and rotation IMO.
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Again I’m just not sure what Pistons fans need to wake up to. It was clear the team has been in rebuild mode, and it only made sense to give yourself the best opportunity at a generational player (presumably) like Wemby.
It didn’t happen, so now the rebuild takes a different shape. That probably includes the goal of winning more games this season than last (which is exactly why I’ve advocated for keeping Bogie unless the trade involves proven entities).
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I do think 25 is the min/worst case scenario and 35-40 would be the best case for the Pistons. Healthy Cade and improving Jaden should almost double the win total. I think they’re a lot better than most people realized IMO especially when they went out and got Monty to coach this team.
I really don’t care about win totals. I just want to see a leap. I want them competing for a play-in spot, even if they don’t get one. They need to be playing somewhat meaningful games at the end of the season.
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I think a leap and competing for a play in are very different things. The latter is making like 5 leaps and means you do care about win totals in some form
The only team they’re better than in the East is probably the Wizards?
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Makes sense for the Pistons as the FA targets
Yes. Play-in still feels way too pie-in-the-sky. Other than the Wizards, you’d be hard pressed to pick the Pistons ahead of anyone else in the East (and Cam Johnson or any other rumored FAs aren’t moving the needle enough to vault up the standings). Like maybe the Hornets on a good day, but other than that, they aren’t better than any of the 10 that were in playoffs/play-in last year and likely aren’t better than Orlando or Indiana either. Best case you get to the same level as those two teams, which still isn’t a play-in team.
Sign Grant Williams:clap:
Yeah no way on competing for play in
I also won’t blame anyone for a 25-28 win season and would be totally fine with it, it’s just not the point or goal right now
Of much larger importance:
Are Cade, Ivey, Duren, Stewart making strides? How does Thompson look? Can Weaver assemble a roster that makes sense (not having 4 centers with overlapping skill sets, have more than 2 guys off ball capable of shooting, etc)
The Strus/Williams pursuits, if real, are encouraging signs on the latter point
I sort of don’t think Strus would choose the Pistons, I think he can start somewhere
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Idk I think Oklahoma City last year is the hope
24-58 the year before (SGA only played 56 games and Giddey was a rookie) to 40-42 because SGA played 12 more games (and got a lot better), Giddey took a star leap and Jalen Williams was a dude right away.
You might be right that it’s an optimistic view and 30 or less wins is more likely and 17 wins is a worse starting point than OKC’s 24 win year…but if Year 2 Ivey is on a clear star path, Cade is healthy and Ausar/Duren are both starter level dudes I think they’ll be competitive at least. Mid 30s win total would be my guess. Play-in being the goal.
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If the organization isn’t actively trying to lose games this year I think there’s more teams in the East (that might be actively trying to lose games) than Washington that they will jump
My question more for Detroit’s season is figuring out if this is the trajectory or not. Whether they get there is a different question, but they need to figure out if one of Cade or Ivey is capable of getting to that SGA level. Those are the only two guys on the roster capable of being the guy and the rebuild hinges on one of them.
I’m not sold on Isaiah Stewart as a starting NBA forward, but do like him as a bench piece. Detroit needs to figure out if Cade-Ivey-Ausar-Duren is the core or not though. Maybe not this year on Ausar because he’s going to probably have a steep learning curve with the competition adjustment, but the rest of them should be able to show if they are legit building blocks or not.
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SGA was in his 5th year and made a jump to 1st team All NBA. Detroit doesn’t have anyone near ready to make such that leap
The Pistons are “behind” in the rebuild because your first crack at a high draft pick was Killian Hayes, and you’ve only acquired one FRP besides the ones you had for yourself, and that was a mid first 4 years ago that turned into Bey. Compared to OKC who was able to stockpile cause they had way more assets when they started the rebuild
If I were a Pistons fan the only thing I’d care about is Cade’s health and trajectory, plus Ausar and Ivey’s play. Everything else is almost irrelevant.
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I figured with all the film you’ve watched, staying up until 3am, you’d be able to tell Amen and Ausar apart. It apparently has had the opposite effect and now blends them together even more.
Ausar to that!
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Agree but think Duren warrants inclusion. Those 4 IMO are all on a trajectory to be the core of a playoff team. They need to take a step toward that this season even if that’s not the result yet.
IMO Ivey and Duren passed the test last year of “will they be future starters”. Cade is INC as a star - that’s the biggest issue here but it’s more because of availability than his play IMO.
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I do think they’re a mid 30 win team next season as well. They’re better than a 17 win team but people get hung up on it.
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