Bracketology / Bubble Watch Thread (2016-17)

Got it. More wins against top 100.

Wisconsin only beat Rutgers by 3 or 4. Like someone posted, Minnesota had to be a really tough game emotionally. Especially getting hosed by some awful refs all night. Our guys were clearly exhausted at the end of that game too. We shoot 40% and win on the road. Let’s take it and move on. We did outrebound a good rebounding team, so that was nice to see.

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Interesting that Crashing the Dance actually has Michigan ahead of Northwestern and Michigan St. on current projection. https://crashingthedance.com/selection

Interesting - seems the main differentiator where our resume is better would be the top 100 win total and +/- against top 100. I can buy the argument of being seeded higher than MSU, but hard to buy being ahead of Northwestern until we play.

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Northwestern’s resume is pretty hollow… Maybe a hair above Michigan’s, but far closer than conventional wisdom.

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Northwestern seems to be getting a lot of mileage out of wins against Dayton and Wake Forest and road wins against B1G bottom feeders. But that’s why their win @Wiscy was so huge for them. A high quality win and another roadie, and late in the season. I still don’t think they’re quite as safe as people seem to think, though, because they have to play at a desperate Indiana team and then at home to Michigan and Purdue. They haven’t been playing well outside that Wiscy game and could easily lose those three. Their losses are all pretty “good,” with the two to Illinois being their worst. But that’s where a scenario where they lose out (including to (IU) would make a bad loss in the first round of the B1G tourney really dicey for them.

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Hope we can win tomorrow as I really don’t want to sweat out the last two road games to get to 500 in league play.

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For sure - this game tomorrow would punch our ticket in my opinion, as long as the bubble remains weak. I still worry about the committee’s opinion of this league, and I really think this game (or Northwestern) are the 9th win we need…even just a win at Nebraska will have me nervous going into BTT.

Even watching JB’s presser, it just felt palpable that everyone feels in their gut that this game is huge.

FWIW


I don’t see how that’s possible truthfully.

I would imagine they have a punchers chance if they lose the next three and win one in the BTT. But finish 0-4 and get in?

I would think they need to win one of these last three but the bubble is so weak this year that maybe they’d still get in by default. I know people say the bubble is weak every year but it’s ridiculous this year. When you look at the teams that are just outside on bracket matrix and most of them have 13-14 losses, that tells you all you need to know.

He’s probably assuming we beat Nebraska.

I love that Clemson is considered a bubble team when they’ve won 3 games in the calendar year 2017. I get that they are losing close games, but sooner or later you have to beat someone.

Michigan could take care of business today and make things a lot easier for itself.

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And a Michigan win could still really make a difference in seeding even if we get in anyway. Win tonight and the path to a 7 seed is very doable, with even a 6 seed not totally out of the question.

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It’s crazy. Clemson is in danger of not being eligible for the nit and they are “on the bubble!”

Let’s just hit some shots today!

Most people have U-M as a 9 now… I can buy that a 7 might be in play if they get hot, but a 6 seems like pushing it. Probably a Big Ten Tourney run til Sunday to make that happen.

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I think 6 would probably be the ceiling with winning the Big 10 tournament. Everything is just so bunched up.

Yeah, I think to get a 6 seed UM would have to win out and then get to Sunday in D.C. But the main point is that beating PU today makes the path to any better seed a lot easier – another very high quality win, our own numbers are likely to go up, etc. A 7 seed is a fine spot for this team to do some damage if it could get there.

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Palm has UM as a 9-seed in Buffalo