Michigan is among the five or so schools that are usually mentioned with him, but I don’t think he officially released a “Top __” list
Suggs situation feels like more of a 4th on a 3 team list that is probably more like a 1 team list. He hasn’t released any list of finalists, though.
I’m not overly optimistic that Juwan lands any of them, but at the very least, I think it says something that elite recruits are instantly throwing Michigan in the conversation with the Kentucky, Duke UNCs of the world.
Somebody hasn’t been around the Pistons Forum in a couple of days.
I think you should be optimistic we land at least one…strictly based on the math. Even if you only think we have a 20% shot at Christopher, Kessler, Burnett, Dickinson and Ware (I think its a near zero chance for Springer, Todd, Coleman), there are better odds we land one than zero.
Dylan posted an article about 10 days ago that talked about Jalen Suggs. This is what the article said:
Other potential candidates that Michigan may be in the running for:
Jaemyn Brakefield (33)
Zach Loveday (109)
Dylan: Any thoughts on Michigan being on short list for these two?
I’d expect Michigan to make the next cut for Brakefield.
Tough to get a good read on Loveday’s recruitment right now.
I’d like to see them consider more guys like Loveday as part of the balance between one-and-done guys and those who might stick for 2-3 years or even 4. Feel free to correct me on this, anyone, but I feel that the best place to chase one-and-dones is on the wing. At C and PG maybe not so much. At least, in Beilein’s system. Maybe the learning curve at those two spots won’t be so steep in Howard’s.
Agree completely about the balance. I’d like to see Howard and the staff really pursue Loveday and Carlos Johnson in addition to the top-50 guys.
*Edit: Which is not necessarily to say that they aren’t recruiting these guys as well as they should be. It may just be a bit more under the radar.
I think we’d have a “puncher’s chance” for Brakefield especially with Zeb recruiting him. It also sounds like Juwan is after the kid pretty hard and that Brakefield may be responding positively to that.
I believe that if we prioritized Loveday and sold him on everything Michigan including academics, the value of a Michigan degree, and the Michigan culture we’d have a pretty good chance of getting him.
It seems like a foregone conclusion that we will make the Final 5 when Nimari Burnett makes his next cut on Aug 12th. If we also make the next cut for Brakefield as Dylan suggests, that would mean we are in the Final 5ish for 9 of the top 50 recruits.
I know basketball recruiting doesn’t work this way, but if we had a 20% chance on each of the 9 recruits, the probability is we get 2 of the Top 50. Along with Zeb Jackson, that would be a very strong class. Add to that our 2018 and 2019 recruits would set Michigan up for a deep basketball team for 2020-2021 season. Juwan may get a pass for how Michigan does this year, but he will definitively start to be measured by Michigan’s results in 2021.
Even if we only have a 10% chance for each, we have a 61% chance of getting at least one. Which is pretty legit.
One thing to watch for to is that as more and more kids commit some of these kids top options may no longer become options or much less desirable options.
60% of the time it works every time.
I don’t know - Duke’s only national championship (in fact, I think their only FF appearance) under the one and done model came with Okafor being a dominant center. Kentucky’s only title under Cal was with Anthony Davis at center, and their second best team (the one that went undefeated until their FF loss to Wisconsin) had Karl Anthony Towns.
I feel like it takes most guards and wings a solid two years to become dominant college players - guys like Burke and Stauskas being prime examples.
Fair points. It often said that big men are more suited to the NBA than to college, where it’s guard play that determines your fate in the tournament, which is a different point to the one-and-done discussion but somewhat related. Still, you’ve identified three cases that do make a point.
there are Trae Young and Sexton type of guards that dominate as a freshman. but they are also ball dominant and high volume, which does not happen at Duke or Kentucky where benches are crammed with 5-star recruits.
That Duke team also had Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow. The KAT team also had Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis.
I don’t really think there is one position that works as a OAD and one that doesn’t. If anything I’d say PG is the hardest to pick up probably as a national championship level cog. The key to me is just having enough of a foundation or other talented pieces, who all fit together, to win. That’s sort of the constant between contending teams, the pieces all fit.
A lot of times when you are grabbing a bunch of five-stars, the pieces don’t all fit.
Sure, I never meant to suggest those teams didn’t also have strong surrounding talent.
But I do think there’s something really hard to replicate when you find a college big man who is a dominant player and also very efficient. I look at teams like Wisconsin with Kaminsky and Indiana with Zeller, and those two teams were at their best in the Big Ten and nationally with those guys, because they were just so hard to stop.
Occasionally, you see a freshman guard or wing who is that dominant - Derrick Rose, John Wall, Zion this year. But I feel like the list of super highly touted guards and wings whose teams flamed out early in the tourney is long - Durant, Wiggins, Josh Jackson, Lonzo Ball, Austin Rivers, and that’s just off the top of my head.
I guess, for me, I’d rather get a Walker Kessler and a Micah Peavy in the same class than a Josh Christopher and Zach Loveday. But I see the arguments on both sides, and it’s not like I’d turn down the second group if they wanted to come.
Also obvs, FF/NC is a really high standard. UK’s 2010 team had Boogie, John Wall, and Eric Bledsoe and didn’t get past the Elite 8. They were definitely a good team.