I just have a hard time thinking that if one of the wings commits that they could turn away Young or Livers… And likewise if one of the 4s commits, that they could turn away Cain or Smith… Seems like a huge risk to take banking the scholarship for the spring in hopes of landing a 5 star when you have a talented player wanting to commit… Seems like a recipe to wind up with a 3rd or 4th tier player in the end
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I tend to agree. If I was calling the shots, I’d be fine with taking one of Young/Livers and one of Smith/Cain in the fall and then continuing to recruit the others through the season and see how everything shakes out.
Now that means you have to actually land them, but if you look at a class of Brooks, Poole, Matthews, Livers/Young, Cain/Smith – that’s a pretty well-rounded class. Not many five-star impacts, but solid top-100 level players at basically every position 1 through 4.
On the other hand, I can see an argument for not taking two from one group or the other. Although I could probably be convinced to take Smith and Cain.
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A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Yeah, if we were bigger players for the 5 stars then I’d be more inclined to wait than I currently am. I like the other options enough that I think we need to take them if they want to come.
I don’t trust us landing Wilkes Jackson or Bowen. I’d much rather go with a combo of
Smith
Cain
Young
Tillman
Livers…
Then again I’m assuming those five stars arent super interested. Maybe I’m completely wrong. Hopefully so and that’s why he’s holding out. Also he might be ok with gambling and banking that scholarship. Or maybe Gaines is his fall back wing. He maybe more interested in balancing the classes. Taking one 3/4 wouldn’t be that absurd. Maybe he envisions Ibi and Wilson holding down. The wing. Maybe even slide Wagner to the four on occasions. I have this feeling Wilkes is interested and Jordan is trying hard to make it happen. Very lntersting
Ideally we get Young or Livers (preferably Young) in the Fall. Then we’re good and we can push hard for whoever the coaches want.
With Livers commitment today, I think UM is in a position to wait out the recruitment of its top choices on the wing. Consider Beilein’s preference to cut down to an 8-man rotation.
Cain/Smith, IMO, can be good solid program players, but not sure either of them would project in to Beilein’s 8-man rotation in '17-18 and both would face some obstacles in making the 8-man rotation in '18-19. Especially if UM is able to bring in a guy like CRyan in the '18 class.
Wilkes, Bowen, Jackson can all step in to the 8-man rotation as Freshmen. If UM strikes out on those 3, either retain Donnal for a 5th yr or look at the transfer options at season’s end?
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I think you take Cain (assuming he wants to go here) and just finish. Jackson isn’t even considering us and Bowen/Wilkes have their eyes set on blue bloods.
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Can’t we just take another guy we really like now, and then still continue to recruit the guys waiting until the Spring. At that point, there could be team attrition.
It was very important for us to be aggressive with the roster this past offseason and should be going forward.
No reason not to keep recruiting a 5 star in case a spot opens up, but I don’t see it. Not many transfer candidates after this season. Too early for any of the 2016 class to possibly transfer. DJ already used his redshirt, so it doesn’t make sense to transfer (it’d be better for him to stay a year and then grad transfer). And then I can’t see any way that Rahk or Duncan would be leaving as seniors.
Really the only option for a spot opening up is Wagner going pro (in the NBA or Europe) or something really negative going down with member(s) of the 2016 class (akin to what happened at OSU, which I view as super unlikely). So yeah, I don’t foresee attrition.
I’m not sure if I’m the only one in this boat but I’d be a little let down if someone other than Wilkes, Bowen, or Jackson commits to our last scholarship. The others with offers are nice players but I think we need some star power on '17s roster.
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For context, add Justin Smith to the class and we’d finish the season about 18th on the 247 comp rankings. Add Bowen and it would be 11-12th. With Cain, it would be about 21 or so.
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Kind of funny looking back to this link considering we swiped both Livers and Hudson this week. 
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I’m with you. Realize it isn’t likely, but we need to start fighting these battles til the end even if we lose. Next 2-3y expectation is that we start winning some of them and getting this particular staff some reps (together) on this process has value.
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It is indeed hard to foresee attrition, but that’s the whole point: It always is.
If you look back, several of our transfers would’ve seemed preposterous a year beforehand: Horford, Smotrycz, Brundidge, Dawkins, Doyle. With each individual player, the chances always appear low, but if you pool those odds, they rise to the point that you almost expect a departure.
As such, it would be logical for U-M to keep on recruiting the big fish regardless of whether we have an open scholarship. Things happen.
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2017 is a great time to pick this battle, seems like we have a ‘solid’ class. Striking out on the last scholarship doesn’t appear terrible. This group is going to be an upper half big ten team as a floor, and maybe there is a trey/caris gem in there already. If we can get a true stud, comparable to what mcgary* was able to bring then those projections change in a very good way.
*in impact or recruiting ranking, not necessarily at the 5 spot
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Per Scout, Justin Smith’s visit is canceled and UM moved on after Livers’ commit. They are very certain he would have committed if he had been offered on the visit. Apparently, we are going hard after Bowen for our last spot (and Wilkes as well presumably).
So yeah, I guess that’s what it comes down to probably. Wilkes/Bowen or bust.
Wow. Ballsy.
So Livers took his spot. Which means, since they thought Smith would commit, that they liked Livers more than Smith. Interesting.
What does this mean for Cain?
Livers is more of a true 4, which we need, but I really like Smith’s athleticism. I’m not very confident that we’ll land Wilkes or Bowen.
I really think we need another 3 (who could maybe play spot minutes at the 4) in this class.