2017-18 Roster Breakdown


#81

I think 3 all day.


#82

Are we of the assumption that if we offer Livers he will drop?


#83

I think Mathews will start.


#84

Been seeing people (maybe just you idk) talking about this. Donnal’s stats are super skewed. He had a few “dominant” performances (often against teams with no centers). Like the Illinois game where Caris spoon fed him easy buckets on his way to 26 points. His median stats in B10 games were 8 points and 4 rebounds which is more indicative of what you were getting from him on a game by game basis and is more intellectually honest…


#85

Donnal doesn’t really factor into ‘2017-18 Roster Breakdown’ right now does he? He’s listed as a senior this year.


#86

So for everyone else we use averages but for Donnal we use the median because it fits your agenda. Got it.


#87

Good point


#88

True. I’ve just seen it posted in a couple threads and it was bothering me, I will drop it.


#89

It’s certainly fair to use medians, though I would note that one of Donnal’s 2 dominant performances was against Diamond Stone, and the other (the one where you say that Caris spoon fed him easy buckets) weas, in part, because of very good basket cuts by Donnal. If we’re going to do that, though, let’s also be clear that his median for minutes per Big Ten game was 25, and his stats vis-à-vis other Big Ten centers should be analyzed in that context. I’m not saying Donnal was great–I fervently hope that we’re seeing Mo Wagner start at the 5 this year–just saying that we need to compare apples to apples.


#90

I think the discussion wittled down to Donnal because someone suggested we need to recruit a 5 since we don’t have a proven/capable starter on the roster.
That’s when it was mentioned that if that was really the case, we’d be better to just keep Donnal on a 5th year…so now it’s being debated if he’s a proven/capable starter.

At least that’s what I’ve been reading about for the last 20minutes…


#91

Since when is using a full season’s worth of averages not considered intellectually honest? He didn’t pick and choose games


#92

Perhaps ‘more statistically significant’ is the correct statement.


#93

18 games is plenty of time for outliers to regress to the mean. I don’t think mean is any less significant than median in this case. The fallacy in the logic he is using is downplaying the importance of those unusually high scoring nights.


#94

Assuming a healthy roster, I think Matthews will be used most on the wing in '17-18 with MAAR & Poole at the 2-guard. But, unless DJ Wilson really emerges, I think we may see some rotations with Matthews & Robinson on the court together.

Matthews may be in line for more 2-guard minutes later in his UM career after MAAR graduates.


#95

I fully agree about the need for a true four in addition to a combo forward type.


#96

There is no doubt that recruiting the 4 spot has been JB’s achilles heel. The only good true 4 he has gotten a commitment from was probably Robin Benzig who couldn’t get eligible.

This is why Young has been my most wanted recruit in 2017.


#97

To be fair, he’s gotten commitments from guys who were rated pretty highly like Chatman and Smotrycz. They just haven’t worked out for various reasons…


#98

Honestly I think the x maar Robinson Mathews Wagner lineup is the one you will see the most. No true four but with whatever Frosh comes on teamed with Wilson off the bench. I think the 17-18 line up will be pretty fluid and hopefully versatile depending on who comes in. I think Mathews with the year to work on his game should come in as possibly the best player.

I’d really like to hear tillmans name more. I think with the direction of the roster that we need his toughness and rebounding more than what the other fours bring. I really like the other guys too especially livers and young but tillmans rebounding and play making could be a huge asset.

I mean really with the names floating around as long as we land two of

Bowen
Cain
Wilkes
Young
Livers
Smith
Tillman

We can’t really go wrong. When was eastern gonna decide? I kinda wish we held out to see what him and Beardsley thought. Not knocking brooks as I need to see more but those other were tantalizing additions.


#99

Good discussion. When you lay out the 17-18 roster, it really becomes stark how bare the 4 spot is.

On the bright side, if they can just land an impact 4 in this recruiting cycle, we’re in reasonable shape elsewhere. Still would love to see (in addition to the 4) another 2017 freshman wing who can immediately push for minutes.

As mentioned in another thread, it’s useful to try to project who will actually play in a real-world, 8-man rotation. It’s one thing to look at a 13-man roster and say, hey, all the pieces are here, but you have to recognize that all those guys can’t play at once (nor will all be ready at once)—and thus some of those players’ attributes are illusory.

To that end, I’m starting to wonder where Watson fits in after this season. With X, Brooks, MAAR and Poole, you probably want Matthews at the 3, and of course you still have Robinson there. Of course, MAAR and Robinson are gone after 17-18, but there will also be a Jamal Cain-type to contend with.


#100

Don’t you know, all objective sources use median instead of mean when discussing scoring. Anyone the says stuff like “points per game” is being intellectually dishonest. I’m hoping for about a 6 point median from Simpson this year in a backup role. Irvin needs to step up this year and give us a 14 (or so) median. MAAR could lead the team in scoring if he continues his trajectory and a with a median output of 15 shouldn’t be ruled out.

That’s how intellectually honest people discuss scoring.