Zak Irvin's struggles... Got to get better

[tarverine]

@umhoops

but if he’s not going to shoot those shots then why is he on the floor?

Because of the numerous other reasons you listed in your post?

[hailtoyourvictor]

@UMHoopsFan

I dunno man. The one at 0:45 he comes off the screen and is wide open before the shorter IU player makes a late, short contest. The one at 0:18 it would have been better to pass it to Derrick but that’s a pretty open look off a catch. The one at the buzzer at halftime is maybe a second or two too early and in his sweet spot. And these are clips of the shots, not the ones he passed up. And from a game where he had 3 assists and 0 TOs. Maybe not perfect, but pretty decent decision-making on the whole. And he was making these shots as recently as the nonconference. Just has to knock down a couple more of them.

He’s a 30.5% 3pt shooter over the past two seasons. Because he had a few good non-conference games doesn’t change the fact that he isn’t a good shooter.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@umhoops

If Irvin is going to shoot a couple of pull-up mid-range shots in shot clock, a few transition/unsettled threes and one ball screen three per game I think I would live with that. Obviously his percentages are down right now (he’s made 4 of his last 31 shots for goodness’ sake), but if he’s not going to shoot those shots then why is he on the floor?

“Obviously his percentages are down right now”

260 3pt FGas over the past two seasons is a pretty large sample size.

[Alum05]

I think the Irvin scrutiny is a little harsh, at least as it pertains to the IU game. His decision-making wasn’t perfect. That’s an unreasonable standard. But I’m fine with the shots he took. He won’t become some great shooter over the rest of the season, but if he gets back to his average shooting percentages and keeps making good decisions, we’ll be a pretty tough out.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@Alum05

I think the Irvin scrutiny is a little harsh, at least as it pertains to the IU game. His decision-making wasn’t perfect. That’s an unreasonable standard. But I’m fine with the shots he took. He won’t become some great shooter over the rest of the season, but if he gets back to his average shooting percentages and keeps making good decisions, we’ll be a pretty tough out.

Most of the Irvin’s court time, he is out there with 4 players that are better 3pt shooters than him. When you’re the worst shooter on the court, I don’t think it’s harsh to expect you to use more of the shot clock and/or not take contested shots.

[UMHoopsFan]

Zak is a career 35% 3pt shooter. He was coming off back surgery last year and shot 38% from 3 in conference. I bet the overall numbers are quite a bit higher if you would limit it to catch and shoot 3s. Even with the slump he’s shooting 32% on the year. Timmy once shot 28% for an entire year. Zak is going to play 30 minutes a game and if he takes less than 10 shots and they are mostly open catch and shoot 3s, attempts at the rim, and mid range jumpers, while having 3 assists and 0 TOs, I can live with that.

One thing I do hope is that if he gets it back rolling he doesn’t up his usage too terribly much. I don’t think we’re at our best when his usage is too high.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@UMHoopsFan

Zak is a career 35% 3pt shooter. He was coming off back surgery last year and shot 38% from 3 in conference. I bet the overall numbers are quite a bit higher if you would limit it to catch and shoot 3s. Even with the slump he’s shooting 32% on the year. Timmy once shot 28% for an entire year. Zak is going to play 30 minutes a game and if he takes less than 10 shots and they are mostly open catch and shoot 3s, attempts at the rim, and mid range jumpers, while having 3 assists and 0 TOs, I can live with that.

One thing I do hope is that if he gets it back rolling he doesn’t up his usage too terribly much. I don’t think we’re at our best when his usage is too high.

1. I don’t consider his freshman 3pt % to be very relevant at this point.

2. 31.7% is not a good percentage on the year.

3. He shot 29.8% over the entire course of last season.

You’re making excuses for him because of his name rather than considering that maybe he just isn’t a good shooter.

[Alum05]

I disagree with your “good shot/bad shot” assessment. It’s a short shot clock and Michigan doesn’t run much. If you have the shot, take it. Slump aside, Irvin isn’t such a terrible shooter than he should be passing up good shots unless a better shooter is immediately open or we are trying to run time off the clock.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@Alum05

I disagree with your “good shot/bad shot” assessment. It’s a short shot clock and Michigan doesn’t run much. If you have the shot, take it. Slump aside, Irvin isn’t such a terrible shooter than he should be passing up good shots unless a better shooter is immediately open or we are trying to run time off the clock.

If you have an okay shot and you are a good shooter, take it. Irvin is a bad enough shooter where he shouldn’t be taking contested shots early in the shot clock.

Even by your own definition 2 of Irvin’s 8 shots would be “bad shots”. The shot at 0:18 (a better shooter was immediately open) and the shot at 1:37 (we should have used up more clock in that situation).

Given this (PRE Irvin’s 1 for 8 night vs Indiana), I’d prefer we run our offense and try to get a better look for one of our more efficient scorers than have Irvin taking questionable shots early in the shot clock. But hey, not everyone cares about efficiency.

Conference EFG%
Donnal .647
Wilson .641
Robinson .636
Walton .610
Wagner .609
MAAR .579
Irvin .434
X .375

[Alum05]

is your definition of “contested shot” one in which a defender is within 15 feet?

The one where he missed Walton isn’t ideal, but Irvin was open off the catch.

And you want him to pass up an open look to run clock with over 8 minutes left in the game? I bet you love Lloydball.

[Tom48160]

I believe that Irvin was trying to stay aggressive and shoot himself out of his slump. That said, there is a difference between thinking the game and feeling the game that’s on full display here. The more that we can see the gears turning in Zak’s head, the worse his performance seems to be.

I think the best we can hope for is that Zak returns to his streaky ways. But that starts with him not thinking so much and just trusting himself. Maybe that happens with a few made shots. I’d like to see a few of those scooping layups or a nice cut to the basket early against Wisconsin and see if that doesn’t get Zak to relax some.

[hailtoyourvictor]

Current conference EFG%

Donnal .684
Robinson .648
Wilson .636
Walton .611
Wagner .592
MAAR . 589
Irvin .416
Simpson .412

When you’re THAT inefficient of a shooter on a team with so many (significantly) more efficient shooters, you should only be shooting when you have a good look.

[UMHoopsFan]

I’m not sure why his freshman numbers aren’t relevant but his numbers in the nonconference last season when he was coming off back surgery are. Let’s see where his 3 pt numbers end up at the end of the season and his career. I don’t consider him a knock-down shooter but he may end up a guy who shot 36-37% over a career, never shot under 35% except a year coming off surgery when he still shot 38% in conference. That’s not terrible.

And I don’t really care about Zak’s name, although his history comes into play regarding my thinking. I don’t want Zak taking 3s off the dribble. I said I’d prefer his usage rate not to go much higher. But he has 6 assists and 0 TOs in the last 2 games. He only took 5 shots against MSU at home (1 for 2 from 3). And he has shown the capability to get hot and to make tough shots, which is necessary at times when the offense breaks down. If he can keep up this usage level, let the offense run mostly through other guys, and take the kind of shots he did against IU, to go along with those assist-TO ratios, we’ll be good.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@UMHoopsFan

I’m not sure why his freshman numbers aren’t relevant but his numbers in the nonconference last season when he was coming off back surgery are. Let’s see where his 3 pt numbers end up at the end of the season and his career. I don’t consider him a knock-down shooter but

And I don’t really care about Zak’s name, although his history comes into play regarding my thinking. I don’t want Zak taking 3s off the dribble. I said I’d prefer his usage rate not to go much higher. But he has 6 assists and 0 TOs in the last 2 games. He only took 5 shots against MSU at home (1 for 2 from 3). And he has shown the capability to get hot and to make tough shots, which is necessary at times when the offense breaks down. If he can keep up this usage level, let the offense run mostly through other guys, and take the kind of shots he did against IU, to go along with those assist-TO ratios, we’ll be good.

Because he has quite clearly regressed as a shooter from his freshman season. That’s not really debatable.

[JVS]

Career %/performance/injuries/legacy/non-con aside, one thing is for sure… He’s ICE COLD right now [I wish there was a shot chart that showed which part of the rim/backboard a shooter hit b/c his would be “unique”), so while he belongs on the court (w/o question), he can probably dial down anything remotely debatable on shot selection, look to make the extra pass, and in certain situations, fake and drive with the hopes of drawing contact. He did this really well on a semi fast break against IU where the defender was backpedaling and he got an easy foul, and he shoots 55%-60% at the rim.

[umhoops]

I would argue that those are the reasons that he still plays even when he’s not making shots. Arguing that he shouldn’t take those shots while he’s on the floor seems different to me.

[hailtoyourvictor]

Freshman: 42.5%
Sophomore: 35.5%
Junior: 29.8%
Senior: 31.7%

It doesn’t take a math major to figure out which season is the outlier here. Considering his freshman season is the obvious outlier and from 3 years ago, it makes much more sense to consider his recent shooting trends when discussing his current shot selection. Common sense.

[hailtoyourvictor]

@JVS

Career %/performance/injuries/legacy/non-con aside, one thing is for sure… He’s ICE COLD right now [I wish there was a shot chart that showed which part of the rim/backboard a shooter hit b/c his would be “unique”), so while he belongs on the court (w/o question), he can probably dial down anything remotely debatable on shot selection, look to make the extra pass, and in certain situations, fake and drive with the hopes of drawing contact. He did this really well on a semi fast break against IU where the defender was backpedaling and he got an easy foul, and he shoots 55%-60% at the rim.

Bingo. I’m not saying Irvin should stop taking “good shots”. That would be stupid and disrupt the flow of the offense. I’m saying he should dial down anything remotely debatable, look to make the extra pass, etc. This team is loaded with efficient shooters and the more we utilize that the better.

[Alum05]

Literally no one is advocating that Irvin should take bad shots. The dispute centers around your incredibly narrow definition of good shot.

[UMHoopsFan]

Again, he shot 38% from 3 in conference play despite being #1 on the scouting sheet his junior year. He shot 36% his sophomore year. Freshman year he shot almost all his shots catch and shoot with wide open looks, so I’m not sure it’s so clear that that year was anomalous in terms of shooting ability. Let’s see where he winds up this year.

In the end, though, I think we both think that Zak should only take good shots, should keep looking to pass more, etc. You seem to think that IU was terrible in this regard, I think that he could have made a couple better decisions but did well overall, especially considering he was playing IU, where he’s from.