I don’t believe it’s outcome bias. He shot the ball with 5 seconds left Michigan was in the 2 shot bonus and it was a scramble situation. Instead of shooting the ball with 5 seconds left from 20+ feet how about look for a driving option? You don’t necessarily want to give yourself a chance at rebound situation because if you commit an over the back foul then Northwestern has a chance to win the game.
I’m all for driving and Zak said himself he didn’t realize the time and probably could have driven, but you don’t want to give yourself a chance at putting the ball back in because you might commit and over the back foul? By that logic you don’t want to drive because you might commit a charge.
I was watching the video that @hailtoyourvictor posted and the UNC/Texas game last year had a similar situation where Texas shot early and then got a second chance jumper on the long rebound.
There are 1000x different potential options that could have played out there. Ones that ended with the ball going in the basket would be the best ones, didn’t happen. At this point, beat Nebraska and hope that those late game breaks go your way in two weeks.
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You don’t think Zak has taken a bad shot yet this year, so I’m not surprised to see you happy with that one. Driving, driving/kicking, or swinging it to Robinson to shoot over the much shorter McIntosh were all better options at that point. Have your worst three point shooter chuck a 24 footer with time left for NW to score is not ideal.
You’re right, I don’t think Zak has taken a bad shot all year. I’m not nearly as smart as you! Really, none of us are.
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This is my biggest qualm, I think that’s exactly what MAAR should do, especially since he didnt seek out Walton after the rebound. But I also think Zak should’ve attacked the basket, instead of shooting the 3. He hasn’t shot the 3 well, and had made all different kinds of shots within the arc. When you only need one point to win, take the shot that’s most likely to earn you that one point (shot at the rim, which also adds the possibility of getting fouled).
If you committed a charging foul at the very least NW wouldn’t be shooting FTs. Seems this is more about getting a better shot and not allowing NW a chance to shoot the ball.
If you commit a charging foul then NW gets the ball back with more time on the clock than if they rebound a miss or the miss goes out of bounds.
My point is just that you can win the game crashing the glass on a late miss. It wasn’t as time expired, but similar situation vs. Texas. Bit more time and Irvin drove and missed a wild layup, but Moe followed it up.
In a perfect world, you get a wide open shot for your best shooter as time expires. No one is debating that, the point is more just that shit happens and it was a chaotic late-game situation.
I thought so too, he could have gotten the ball up court a bit faster. But Northwestern also did a good job of stopping ball and had 3 guys basically stopping him and clogging the middle, so it isn’t like he had a great lane to attack.
Dylan posted this photo above.
http://forum.umhoops.com/uploads/default/original/2X/d/d60d58f9dac1a803860171f05d8b26ec06dfab52.png
Maybe MAAR made the right decision.
I think MAAR probably should’ve gone – you can see JB waving them to go quick – but MAAR’s not a great passer in traffic and the refs had been swallowing the whistle already – Walton was getting knocked around in there with no calls. MAAR too had been clobbered a time or two with no whistle and other times had ended up jacking turnaround jumpers, a much worse outcome than what we got. And if MAAR goes right away and missed or gets stripped, that’s a lot of time for Northwestern to do something with the ball. Again, it’s easy to think of ways it might’ve gone better when it didn’t work out.
These are all good points. I just dont like taking a game-winning 3 when all you need is 1, like in a game-theory sense. I’m not guaranteeing a win if MAAR puts his head down, or if Zak drives instead of shooting. Just give me the variable %-likelihood that MAAR gets fouled + MAAR makes a shot near the rim, or Zak gets fouled + Zak makes a mid range jumper + Zak makes a shot at the rim. I think the likelihood of getting 1 point is higher under either of those scenarios, than the likelihood of Zak making that shot (+ getting the offensive rebound, I guess, but I don’t think we were in any kind of position for that).
edit: I do want to add that I acknowledge that these decisions are so hard to make in real time, especially when you’re basically just guessing how much time is left. I really rather MAAR prioritized finding Walton (he should’ve had a vague idea of how much time was left at that point, and known it was enough to get Walton the ball). I also don’t care about leaving 1.3 seconds vs no time; I just want to make the move/take the shot that is most likely to result in 1 point.
If you look at this from a different perspective, would you have been happy defensively if Northwestern had the ball and took that shot? See, I definitely would have.
Good look for Zak? Yes I’ve agreed with people on that. But from an opposing view, if the situation is flipped, then I say by all means Northwestern, go ahead and take a 3 in a scramble situation like that. I’ll live with that defensively. I’d much prefer that shot than taking it to the rim or stepping in for a closer 2.
The chances of the refs calling a foul on Northwestern were pretty low. Like I said, they’d been swallowing the whistle on a lot of contact already, and it’s not like our guys have proven great at drawing fouls anyway. And Northwestern is a well-coached defensive team that wasn’t that likely to commit a blatantly obvious foul.
But it does happen – in fact, MSU still has to be counting it’s lucky stars that they got free throws at the end of the game on a phantom Minny call when Ellis wasn’t even going strong but turning away from the basket.
Like I said, I think MAAR probably should’ve gone and maybe Zak too. But it’s easy to saw now.
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I don’t think anyone is saying that driving wouldn’t have been a good move for Irvin. He admitted as much after the game. My bigger point is that all things considered it wasn’t insane to take the shot, say he thought there was 1-2 seconds less on the clock (he was clearly pulling right when he caught it so he must have thought that) it would be his only move.
The more I watch the play, the more I wonder if Beilein should have gotten someone to call timeout when MAAR crossed halfcourt.
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I agree with everything you’re saying. It was a hectic play that resulted in an open 3, and I hope the players can live with the shot because there’s no reason to beat themselves up over it, considering the circumstances. All I’m saying is that I’m not Monday-quarterbacking: I think that the plan, tied game, should always include the chance of getting fouled/trying to get to the rim.
Well, you do have to give Northwestern credit. They hustled back quick and matched up. They’re a good defensive team and played pretty good defense.
But I don’t think a rhythm three is something you’re ecsatic to give up, and I’m not sure that a long 2 off the bounce is generally preferable, although maybe for Zak it is, especially these days.
MAAR seemed pretty frazzled, so I think a time out would’ve been good. Getting the ball in Walton’s hands seemed like the best-case scenario.
If I’m also considering how incredibly unlikely it is that (1) the ball will very quickly ricochet out of bounds off of NW, (2) we will throw a Tom Brady-esque full-court pass, (3) NW will botch the defensive assignment leaving its smallest player in a jump ball situation with our tallest player, and (4) our player will cleanly catch this full-court pass and lay the ball in before time expires, then no, I’m not going to be very happy if NW attempts an open, step-in fast break 3 with a guy in position to potentially get a put back.
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Right. Have to get this one out of our head and we’re on to Nebraska.
There’s no shame in losing on the road to NW. The manner in which we lost (dumb mistakes, missed FTs, and a fluky last shot) makes it hurt more, and then that we’ve lost other games in similar fashion (VT, Iowa, Minny).