I get that Gard is in his third BT season, but he took over a wildly experienced team which got even more experienced last year. This year, he's rebuilding on the fly. Bo Ryan could do that; thus, I always rated Ryan teams top 4 even in obvious rebuilding situations based on track record, Gard hasn't got a track record in rebuild situations. If he finishes top 4 this year, I'll be convinced.
As to Turgeon, he too has a track record and its a pretty good one. Yes, he has benefited from schedule, Trimble, and winning an insane number of close games (many because of the aforementioned Trimble), but three straight years is three straight years. You can nitpick any coach's record if you want--the fact is that Turgeon's record, at Maryland and at his previous stops, is pretty good. If/when he blows up this year, I'll reconsider, but it seems contradictory to me to say I'll rate Wisconsin highly because they've finished highly before and then say it doesn't matter whether Maryland has finished highly before, I think little of Turgeon (who has vastly more experience and success as a HC at the D1 level than Gard) and therefore Maryland will struggle.