If the Final Four is the first time scouts have seen any player in person then they aren’t doing their job. Most scouts are regionally based and will see players/teams are their area at least 5-8 times per season. My guess is most teams have regional scouts based out of the Detroit/Chicago area.
Worst three point shooters on team:
Brooks .244
Simpson .286
Matthews .318
Don’t see any chance that these three play together any significant minutes next season.
Simpson’s late season regression from deep and complete inability to shoot off dribble, just hamstrings offense to keep up with opponents with scoring firepower.
DeJulius is going to have a major opportunity for significant time next year.
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Small sample size caveat applies to brooks. I think he gets his confidence back and starts hitting at 35+. I like the ball movement better with him on the court too.
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Assuming Brooks shoots much better next year which I think is a safe bet considering his pedigree, if he wants to see the court he’s got to improve on D. Not that it was bad last year for a freshman, but with MAAR leaving we’ll need some people to pick up the slack on D at guard if we’re going to take Simpson out.
All will be working on 3 point shooting in the off season. It may be too much to expect a huge improvement in shooting percentage, but it is not too much to expect some improvement. I am optimistic all will shoot better than 30% from 3 next year.
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How good is DD on defense?
Food for thought:
-Zak Irvin (Junior) = 29.8%, 3P%
-Tim Hardaway Jr. (Sophomore) = 28.3%, 3P%
-Charles Matthews (RS Sophomore) = 31.8%, 3P% (identical to Manny Harris freshman percentage)
-Zavier Simpson (Sophomore) = 28.6%, 3P% (up from freshman year despite higher volume)
Sure these selections may be arbitrary but sometimes players slump or focus on a different aspect of their game and their shot suffers, temporarily. Simpson’s percentage improved despite higher usage and more attempts, so it’s possible this trend could continue with an offseason focusing on it. Matthews at 31.8% was still a very effective player and why doubt he will improve as well? Irvin and Hardaway shot sub 30% each for a season but had seasons where they shot a much higher percentage. Trust in the process, they should both improve. (Note: Manny never got his percentage up but I included him for the interesting point that it was identical to Matthews this year and also Manny was still a menace anyway for opposing teams.)
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@umhoops can correct me with the numbers if I’m wrong, but I’m almost positive that Irvin, Hardaway, and Manny Harris were shooting far more threes off the dribble, late in the shot clock, and at higher volumes in general.
The issue is that Simpson and Matthews haven’t given any indication that they’re decent shooters going through a slump like Irvin and Hardaway did earlier in their careers. Most importantly, they’re both awful at free throws, which is usually an indictment on the rest (not always). They both have very odd form too.
Because it’s been 2 offseasons already and he hasn’t developed into the ~35% guy that the offense really wants to have in the corner.
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You guys parse the numbers pretty fine, and I salute that. What I draw from the current discussion–and from what my eyes tell me, too–is that we should draw the breaks on assumptions that M will be a dominant squad next year until we see where the points are coming from. Beilein performs almost annual miracles, so I expect he finds them, but where is still most definitely up for grabs.
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All fair points!
People can shoot well with weird form, but I feel like neither Simpson nor Matthews get close to enough rotation on the ball, which is why we see so many of Simpson’s rim out (While Matthews got some crazy bounces to go in, they didn’t have much to do with the spin of the ball). I hope you’re right though, because the offense probably can’t run next year with Simpson and Matthews out there unless Teske can hit threes.
You really don’t think that a successful NCAA tournament run – not just making the F4 but then doing well there – can boost draft stock? It’s not that it replaces all other performance, but it can be a very relevant boost. Also, remember that drafting decisions include a number of people, scouts, GMs, owners, etc., and it just takes one team to draft a guy.
Moe did pretty well in a bunch of high profile games where a number of NBA scouts might have been in attendance.
20pts 9rbs (1-3 3pt) @NC
23 pts (3-5 3pt) vs UCLA
10 pts (2-5 3pt) @Tex in 21 mins
27 pts (3-4 3pt) @MSU
15 pts 8 rbs (1-7 3pt) v MSU in BTT
17 pts (3-6 3pt) vs PU in BTT
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What I really liked about livers limited minutes was that he did not seem to make many mistakes, which is extra tough at the start of games when the opponent is fresh. He seemed (I might be misremembering) like the opposite of Poole. He didn’t make plays, but he limited mistakes.
That was fine for this year as a freshman, but next year we will need production from him (or who ever takes his minutes).
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I worry about this too, but 32% is really not that far from 35%, and Matthews did have a 4/22 stretch that coincided with his overall slump. It very well might not happen, but it’s not a huge stretch to think that he could hit 35% next year, especially if he’s more confident in general. I also don’t think his form is quite as odd as Simpson’s.
Simpson . . . it seems like more of a stretch. But he has a great work ethic and great instruction and we’ve all seen players develop at Michigan. It really would make such a difference, too.
Brooks I don’t worry much about in terms of being at least a pretty good shooter. It really is a small sample size - if 4 of his 3s go down, he’s shooting 34%, while his form is good and he has the Jay Wright seal of approval. How well he can adjust to Division 1 athletes in other ways is likely to be the limiting factor.
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“The first thing I told the coaches in there (after the game),” said Haynes, “was that my number one thing is to get Xavier, Eli in the gym, David DeJulius - when he comes - in the gym, to work on the in-between game, shoot pull-up jumpers, work on our floaters. To grow for next year. To get these guys playing off the bounce. To get that confidence in those guys, develop their games a little bit more. You will see a difference in our guards.”
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I think it can help a young player without much playing time prior to this year where you can make an argument that they are “finally putting it all together” after adjusting to playing big minutes throughout the year. Charles is a guy who this argument can apply to (or DJ last year). Not Mo.
Also scouts aren’t dumb. They aren’t gonna see one or two performances in person and then not look at the rest of the tape. I would guess that as far as in-person evaluations go, they are more looking at a player’s body language than they are his play. They already have all the tape on his play.
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Simpson is limited to catch and shoot opportunities. NEVER made an off the dribble jumper all year.
Handicaps offense terribly.
I’m just excited to hear about Dejulius vs Simpson in practice. Not a better defensive guy to go against head to head every day in practice than Z. If Dave can do anything off the dribble against him right away, JB will know it’s forreal
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It’s not that scouts won’t “look at the rest of the tape,” but if you don’t think a big tourney run helps (and Mo is just 20 at the moment, younger than Matthews by the way), we just disagree. At least I have LeBron on my side – he said DiVincenzo “made himself a lot of money” in the final game 