Although I am hopeful the NCAA will render a severe penalty, I am still skeptical until I see it. It seems that after the initial media attention wears off, the penalty often ends up being just a single missed postseason and loss of a scholarship or two, but nothing substantial enough to really hurt a program like UNC hoops long-term.
OSU is the biggest example of this. They took their lumps for one year, and didn't miss a beat since the minimal scholarship losses they had couldn't make a dent in their program. USC seemed to be the exception, but the way the NCAA reversed course on PSU indicates that perhaps they had some "regret" about how much they punished USC.
Bottom line: With the money these big-time programs like UNC make for the NCAA, I am still doubtful that anything remotely close to the death penalty will happen. It pays to cheat these days.