Irvin as a 1st rounder in 2016

Michigan Basketball
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"A chasm of difference." Wow, chezaroo, impressive. Listen, carefully, unless you are an NBA GM or a person who played for several years in the NBA and has a clue as to that about which you are speaking, you simply don't have the credibility, in my opinion, to make a definitive statement that "his obvious deficiencies do not translate into an NBA GM selecting him in the first round." When you become an NBA GM perhaps you can say that you, as an NBA GM, wouldn't select him in the first round, but since that's not likely to happen any time soon, it's rather a moot point. Now, before you ask if I'm having a "bad day," please understand that I'm really getting tired of posters who, in all likelihood, couldn't carry these players' gym bags but think they have the right to become so critical of our players on message boards, and who love to point out those players' "obvious deficiencies." Finally, you're more than welcome to attack me. I really don't care, so have at it, but I'm done with this discussion as I really dislike it when message board time is taken up with unnecessary argument and bravado, almost as much as I hate unfair criticism of our players or recruits. Again, Go Blue!!! Oh, Dylan, I know, no personal attacks. Delete me if you must!

Needless to say not all of “our” players have NBA potential. This like any other message board often initiates discussion on a particular players attributes and abilities as to how they might translate to the next level. Hence the title of this thread. I,like every other UM fan hope Irvin shows out as a 17 and 8 player this year and is an integral cog of a B1G championship team. My opinion as to how his abilities may or may not translate to next level is just that, opinion. I believe everyone is entitled to one of those. He is not a 1st round talent, but that won’t stop me from cheering him on from my seat in the Crisler Center this season!! Go Blue too!

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He needs to improve his handle and become a 2.

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Does THJ handle the ball much in the NBA? I wouldn’t think so…

If THJ can be drafted in the 1st round, I don’t see how it’s such a lock that Irvin can’t. Over the final month of the season (when Irvin made his leap forward), Irvin was putting up better numbers than THJ ever had.

I’d bet against Irvin being a 1st round pick, but to pretend like it’s impossible is just silly.

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Not even just THJ, by the way. I see no reason why Irvin can’t be better than other 1st round SG/SF picks like Reggie Bullock, Archie Goodwin, John Jenkins and others. Those players all have holes in their game (as does Irvin) and were still 1st round picks.

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Irvin will not be a first round draft pick NEXT year. No way. I respectfully acknowledge all legitimate reasons why he could be, but he won’t. I’d be happy to place a friendly wager with anyone who claims he will be though? Zingerman’s for a post game sandwich sometime?

26

Can you read?
"I’d bet against Irvin being a 1st round pick, but to pretend like it’s impossible is just silly.

I also don’t expect Irvin to declare until after his senior season. I do think it’s possible he plays his way into the 1st round by then.

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Can you read? "I'd bet against Irvin being a 1st round pick, but to pretend like it's impossible is just silly.

I also don’t expect Irvin to declare until after his senior season. I do think it’s possible he plays his way into the 1st round by then.

Not trying to start a war if a 5 star recruit under Beilein plays out his 4 years. Does that mean the coach did not develop him well enough? This is a familiar comment about Izzo. I like Irvin but I don’t see NBA in him yet the best parts of his game are still inconsistent.

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Can you read? "I'd bet against Irvin being a 1st round pick, but to pretend like it's impossible is just silly.

I also don’t expect Irvin to declare until after his senior season. I do think it’s possible he plays his way into the 1st round by then.

No need to “declare” after your senior season. The header on this thread is “Irvin as a 1st rounder in 2016.”

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I see your point AlbrechtShotFake, but I don’t know if that was an overrating by the recruiting gurus, or maybe it was just purely circumstantial. I think Irvin got pigeonholed a little his freshman year, with Stauskas, Lavert, and GRIII all playing in front of him. The role he was asked to play on that team (3 point sniper off the bench) probably placed a natural limitation on his development. I do think it took a long time for his basketball IQ to rise to the point where he could start “seeing the floor” the way you need to in Beilein’s offense, and with that comes the inconsistencies you - and others - have referenced. I don’t know, though, if I personally would put that on the coaching staff.

I wouldn’t put my money on Irvin as a 1st rounder this year however, but like others, I can see scenarios where it could happen. He’s got an NBA body, and enough of a skillset that a 16 & 7 type season might put him into 1st round consideration.

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Can you read? "I'd bet against Irvin being a 1st round pick, but to pretend like it's impossible is just silly.

I also don’t expect Irvin to declare until after his senior season. I do think it’s possible he plays his way into the 1st round by then.

Not trying to start a war if a 5 star recruit under Beilein plays out his 4 years. Does that mean the coach did not develop him well enough? This is a familiar comment about Izzo. I like Irvin but I don’t see NBA in him yet the best parts of his game are still inconsistent.

No, I don’t buy into that. Every player is different so I don’t think coaches should be judged on higher ranking players that take longer to develop.

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Can you read? "I'd bet against Irvin being a 1st round pick, but to pretend like it's impossible is just silly.

I also don’t expect Irvin to declare until after his senior season. I do think it’s possible he plays his way into the 1st round by then.

No need to “declare” after your senior season. The header on this thread is “Irvin as a 1st rounder in 2016.”

I don’t think he will be a 2016 1st round pick. I could see him potentially being a late 1st round pick the following year. Rather than creating a separate Zak Irvin draft status thread, I figured I could express that opinion here. Is that a problem?

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Logically, saying that Zak could be rated on potential higher than others who would clearly not be first rounders now if their teams had to do it over again (THJr traded for basically the equivalent pick/do-over, Bullock, etc), probably doesn’t pass the smell test in any draft rooms. That is basically to argue that someone could make an equivalent misjudgement, but not sure he gives up his last yr of eligibility for that rationale. Better to have an NBA comp who has actually done well.

I think his best shot is if the team does well and he can contribute/ride that wave into the draft. That or really take over usage/scoring responsibility more than we would expect with Caris/DW back. Needs combination of capability and opportunity. Capability he showed in flashes at the end of the season (still needing to work on D, finishing, etc), opportunity will probably be best in 16-17 when he would in theory be “the guy”. Maybe that comes this year?

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Logically, saying that Zak could be rated on potential higher than others who would clearly not be first rounders now if their teams had to do it over again (THJr traded for basically the equivalent pick/do-over, Bullock, etc), probably doesn't pass the smell test in any draft rooms. That is basically to argue that someone could make an equivalent misjudgement, but not sure he gives up his last yr of eligibility for that rationale. Better to have an NBA comp who has actually done well.

I think his best shot is if the team does well and he can contribute/ride that wave into the draft. That or really take over usage/scoring responsibility more than we would expect with Caris/DW back. Needs combination of capability and opportunity. Capability he showed in flashes at the end of the season (still needing to work on D, finishing, etc), opportunity will probably be best in 16-17 when he would in theory be “the guy”. Maybe that comes this year?

I’m the one who brought up THJr and Bullock and I’ve clearly stated that I’m talking about Irvin’s stock in the 2017 draft, not 2016.

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I wasn’t really agreeing/disagreeing with the 16/17 comment, but it seems we have the same view. I just think using what many in NBA circles feel are overvalued 20s picks wouldn’t be how I’d sell Zak’s potential/upside. THJr actually makes a better argument that you can’t plug gaps in your game further in the NBA than that you can. Maybe semantics but that was all i was saying.

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I don’t agree with the analysis of Hardaway as an “overvalued” pick. He has played fine in the NBA - not great, but certainly not worse than one would anticipate for his draft slot. The fact the Knicks traded him means almost nothing to me - they are a terribly managed franchise. I actually think Tim might find a nice fit in Atlanta and be a meaningful contributor there.

As far as Irvin, in the NBA I see him as almost a pure catch and shoot player, which means the key for his pro stock is getting that three point shooting percentage back to the 40-45 percent range.

In college, though, I do anticipate he’ll continue to be a ballhandler. The idea that he’ll “revert” to his prior role makes little sense to me. In our offense, we can always use additional guys who can handle the ball. If anything, Caris struggled early last year because we didn’t have anyone else on the wing to help him out in that role, and he tried to do too much. If Zak can continue to use the dribble effectively, and pass off the dribble drive, Caris may find himself with some wide open looks on the perimeter, which will be great for him.

In other words, I don’t see why Zak’s usage rate would need to decline with the return of Caris. As I recall, in 2013-14 Caris, Nik and Glenn all had pretty high usage rates. There’s no reason Walton, Caris and Zak can’t do the same this year. And if Dawkins and Chatman have improved their handles, they’ll get opportunities to create off the dribble as well.

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On the Hardaway point, you had me second guess myself as I have a picture of him and Trey hanging next to the desk in my office and thought maybe I had rushed to judgement, but I watch a ton of NBA, and did 20m of data checking basically to see if I wasn’t giving him enough credit, the summary of which is below (in NY noted):

412/474 qualified players in Real Plus Minus
450/474 in WAR
243/366 in PER

So you may say that SG’s are devalued in these metrics, which in some cases may be true, but among SGs, where you may have more specific needs for the position:

47/82 SGs in True Shooting%
43/82 SGs in Defensive Reb Rate (w/above avg length)
61/61 SGs in Steals/48m, and he would have to improve by 33% to catch JJ Reddick in 60th. This is really telling and probably a huge red flag if you’re not an exceptional shooter.
91/96 SGs in Defensive +/- amongst SG

So then you might say that at 21st pick, this is to be expected, but the few ways I’ve seen this calculated is based on win shares, and he needs to produce 9 over his first five years in order to justify the (on average), and in 2013/4 he produced 3 (decent), and in 2014/5 he produced 0.8 (awful).

This isn’t trending the right way, but if you say that NY has 100% blame on this b/c its NY, then he effectively has no stats and could end up being Durant/Lebron. What is evident in watching him play is that he is athletic, but gets little value out of his athleticism (Steals, rebounds), he is there to shoot, but is at the median, and his defense, the area he was meant to have potential for improvement in, is near last in the league for his position, all while the eye test shows he hoists really poorly selected shots. ATL will improve this for sure just given the system, but he’s looking like a BACK end of the rotation guy which is below what one wants round 1, or is forecasted to get on avg.

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"As far as Irvin, in the NBA I see him as almost a pure catch and shoot player, which means the key for his pro stock is getting that three point shooting percentage back to the 40-45 percent range."

I completely agree with that. He’s got height and if he gets his percentage up I see him being taken as a shooter to come off the bench. Thinking of R.J. Hunter at the end of this year’s 1st round. Yet if the kid has a great year and stays for an even better senior year, I will not complain about that.

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All he needs is a great Combine and Team workout to become a 1st rounder in 2016. THJ raised his stock through the combine and Team Workouts.

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Appreciate the thorough and thoughtful analysis, @JVS. Really insightful. The one thing I’d quibble on is making too much out of the “trend”. Here’s hoping his pro “sophomore slump” simply mirrored his college one, and we see an upward trajectory from here for THJ.

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@Voltron - more than fair. Just the read as it sits as the current cut in time. Hawks will get the efficiency/shot selection up. Do think its on Tim though to raise the bar on D (that steal rate was the most shocking thing that came from looking into it). I do want him to do well, and the complete analysis on over/under value can probably only be done after 4-5y.