We’re asking X to replace Walton’s production as a 2 way player, which is a 50/50 proposition in my view.
We’re asking Charles Matthews to replace Zak Irvin’s production…which may be a wash (better finisher and defender, same rebounding, decrease in passing/distribution).
Livers to me won’t be much of a factor because DJ Wilson is going to log 30mpg next year.
For me, Jordan Poole is the biggest question mark because there is clear opportunity at the 2 spot based on MAAR struggling. I’ve seen a ton of JP live over the summer and I don’t think he’ll be an instant impact type other than catch and shoot scenarios. I think he’ll struggle defensively in particular.
In order for us to make significant improvement we’re going to need X Simpson to exceed Walton’s 2 way impact and Wagner to make HUGE improvements defensively
I just don’t have faith that John Beilein can make that happen.
If anything, I think it seems likely that our defense will be better next year. X > Walton, Matthews > Zak; and there should be an instant jump in motor. Also, I think expecting improvement from both DJ and Mo is reasonable, this is both of their first seasons has starters/major contributors.
I agree that Poole is the biggest wildcard (and what Matthews provides offensively), but unless MAAR returns to form, Poole’s shooting and passing are almost certain to be an offensive upgrade.
The payment would match the results better. But no, University of Michigan should not be paying their bball coach pennies AND get poor results. We should pay a good chunk and expect top results commensurate with the dollar figure.
I’m much more bearish on this than most posters here… I mean Matthews was a good recruit, is certainly athletic, and will probably he the best defender right away. However, this is a guy who had an offensive rating of 93 and couldn’t get more minutes when the guy ahead of him was Isaiah Briscoe, who was wildly inefficient last year. His assist rate was 5.5 to a 23.1 turnover rate. His rebound rate and steal rate were both worse than what MAAR is at this year. He shot 46% on two pointers, mostly point blank range layups, and 41% from the line. I think people expecting him to come in and be a number one option are going to be very disappointed, barring an unexpected leap. I think he’ll be very different from Irvin but have the same problem: a great secondary option thrust into the wrong role.
See my 12/31 practice report post - I said Matthews really struggled passing out of PnR with several TOs. Keep in mind I’ve tried to be extremely diplomatic of late in an effort to keep peace.
I’m sure you can probably read between the lines to get my unfiltered view of what we’re in for with Matthews and/or Poole as our best PnR players next year.
We need an efficient scoring guard that can run the PnR so badly, and it just shocks me that we’re not looking at any for 2017. Like it legit puzzles me even more than taking Davis.
Stuck in a place of hoping that one of X, Poole, Matthews emerges. Sounds like, at least until we see him play, Matthews will be another MAAR on offense, with more athleticism.
Also, assuming Matthews outplays MAAR from day 1, and Poole isn’t our diaper dandy savior, could Duncan start again, to add shooting? X-Matthews-Duncan-Wilson-Mo? There’s definitely not much ball handling there, but if Matthews can handle as well as MAAR, it just comes down to Duncan’s shooting vs MAAR’s glue-guy attributes.
By the way, as for Chris Mack, Xavier has finished with a kenpom rank over 50 3 of the last 5 years, while his players (a) were involved in a brawl at the end of a game with Cinci, (b) have had the tendency to be kicked out/suspended/accused of domestic violence/sexual assault (Myles, Wells, Reynolds). Meanwhile, he hasn’t won a Big East conference championship (though he did win the A-10) or get out of the sweet 16 (though he has gotten there 3 out of 7 years, which is quite good), and has sent one player to the NBA (late second round pick and bit player Semaj Christon).
So perhaps Mack would be a better coach at UM than Beilein, but that’s far from certain. And heck, if Beilein is going maybe Matta will be too (as OSU looks to miss the tourney for consecutive years), and OSU would probably be a better job for him.
I agree that Matthews may not be a magic bullet, especially considering how little run he got at UK, although at least he has really good athleticism and some college development under his belt. If he’s not a major contributor next year, they will be in for a rough season.
That said, I just don’t think Poole will make an instant impact or be the next “great” Michigan guard. He seems like a solid, confident shooter, somewhat reminiscent of Irvin coming out of HS, with a few different strengths/weaknesses. Definitely a nice complementary player but not someone you build a team around. He doesn’t have an explosive first step or even average verticality. And watching Walton and Irvin struggle to finish this year speaks to how a lack of athleticism can impose a hard ceiling on a player.
This, BTW, is why I would really prefer Carmody over Ryan in 2018. Alongside Poole, we need a guy with a relentless motor and some bounce, not just another smooth SG.
Poole’s year so far at La Lumiere has encouraged me. Sure, it’s easier playing on a super team. But he’s going for 15 a night and shooting 68% on twos and 45% on threes.
I think his passing abilities (while good) are a down the line thing in terms of immediate impact, but a lengthy guard who can shoot will be a nice luxury.
Fair, but after watching X literally dominate in HS, I really think the step up to high-major D1 can be a rude awakening for less athletic (and in X’s case, smaller) guys.
Im curious how you see our offense taking shape, in 2017, Dylan. For all of the complaints about Zak and Dwalt, nobody seems to have a good answer of what to expect (changes/improvement/regression). The only certain thing seems to be Mo’s position as a high usage big man.
I don’t really worry about offense because Beilein teams have been outside of the top-50 once offensively and it was 2 years ago when Caris and Walton were out.
I don’t expect the offense to look radically different, and obviously there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Xavier, but we’ve seen how big of a difference year 1 to year 2 can make for a point guard.
I like that additions and think they all provide +s offensively: Brooks is a scorer/shooter, Poole is a shooter, Livers will be a good backup for DJ and I love his fit at the four as well.
Matthews is the wildcard… I’m not sold on him being ‘the guy’ for this team in terms of a primary ball handling role, but that’s mostly just because I haven’t seen it. Mostly I think there are enough skilled offensive guys that it’ll be nice to have a plus-defender in the mix there.
Since I think we can all agree that JB isn’t going anywhere, the big question is “how good is good enough” in 2017-18. Obviously, 2016-17’s not done but it’s not off to an encouraging start. Do we expect a step forward or will it be a challenge to fill the void left by the (imperfect but still important) departing seniors. I know LAW and Mattman don’t like imposing any hard performance targets on John, but surely next year has to be a make-or-break year for this regime.
