Bracketology / Bubble Watch Thread (2016-17)

  1. B1G Title game finished too late to have any significant impact on the tourney draw.

  2. Wisconsin as an 8-seed shows committee wouldn’t have valued that win too much even if it did have more time to “scrub the bracket” after the B1G Tourney.

  3. I wonder if Michigan/Wisconsin were pre-slotted as “B1G Winner” at that 7 seed slot and “B1G Loser” at that 8 seed slot

Not the easiest draw, but one thing I like is with OK St, Louisville, Oregon, Kansas- none of them have a post player in their top 3 scorers. Hopefully less risk of foul trouble for Mo and DJ and they can focus on their offense/clearing the boards.

3 Likes

I though MSU was a little high, as well. But Vandy got blown out by Marquette & Middle Tennessee, lost to Bucknell at home — 10-8 in a very meh SEC conference. Vandy should have been an 11-seed at best

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I think the committee needs to be “scrubbed”

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I agree with Vandy being lower, was really just taking the opportunity to further complain about MSU’s 9 seed. FWIW, I prefer prioritizing wins over losses. Beating Florida 3 times is so, so much better than anything MSU did

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MSU only 8 spots below us :joy: I just cant. Will be interesting to stack our resume’ up wit Creighton, Cinci, and St. Mary’s. Dont know a ton about those teams, other than Creighton lost their star PG, Watson, but did make it to the Big East championship game.

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Michigan State’s final four run in 2015 they were a 7 seed with 11 pre-tournament losses. Got hot at the right time and had a non-NBA guard shooting them to victories.

I will say that although I’d rather be paired with Oregon, I’d prefer Ok St over RI.

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Ready to make a run to the second round…and promptly get smashed.

Ken Pom-based bracket predictor…
https://gamepredict.us/bracket
and an over/under seeding chart
https://gamepredict.us/bracketology

Some merit to this. Of the guarantee games, only furman has a pulse. The rest of the teams we schedule are among the worst in Division one. I would love to play UD, Oakland, Eastern, Western, any of the Mac over some of the bottom feeders we schedule.

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Wisco as an 8 is absurd. How is Minny a 5? And of course we should be a 6 and Sparty a 10 but we can thank Hollis for that.

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They lose their first game, imo.

Starting to seem like JB sees a difference between playing RPI 100-200 vs 200+ in terms of just how ‘guaranteed’ the games are and, therefore, better for in-game practice while not having to worry about losing. Just speculation. Of course, Dylan usually points out that it’s tough to predict where these RPI 100+ teams will actually finish.

I agree with the schedule aspect. There are easy ways to “game” the RPI. Look at the SEC Conference; hired a consultant who used to work with NCAA and now the conference RPIs are much better ---- without playing many other PowerConference opponent.

I disagree that it cost Michigan 2 seed lines this year, though. This was a team that was trending in the 7/10 or 8/9 matchup all season. If the B1G Finals were yesterday, and the OOC slate was scheduled with fewer 200+ RPI anchors, maybe the seed could have been nudged up to a 6.

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RPI is stupid but we haven’t done a good job of scheduling to it. Maybe didn’t cost us 2 seeds but probably cost us a seed line.

We can’t control Texas being historically Shitty this year.

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The MAC is a “bad bet” for RPI assistance. The top team or 2 is traditionally a legit team that can scare you in Nov/Dec. And there’s enough parity in the middle of the conference that it is a challenge to project who will end up 20-11 and who will end up 15-16. Same with C-USA.

Horizon League, Ohio Valley Conference, Sun Belt Conference all much easier to project 20+ win & +.600 win% candidates — without really risking a high challenge.