I guess I don’t see how Underwood is not considered better than Groce when comparing their pre-Illinois resumes.
Groce barely had an above .500 record in MAC play. Underwood lost 1 game in conference play in three seasons in conference play. I understand it’s the Southland, but it’s not like he inherited a juggernaut program. He did about as good as you could do. Aside from his .981 conference winning percentage, his overall winning percentage was .864 at SFA. Groce’ winning % was .603. He had one total season with less than 15 losses at Ohio. And when you factor in his one season at Okie St, where he Improved their offensive PPP by almost .2 in one season in a power conference. I place a lot more value on regular season success than tournament success when evaluating mid major coaches. Groce’ mediocre conference winning percentage just tells me that Ohio got hot in a couple conference tourneys. Underwood won the regular season title three years in a row. That tells me he is a better coach.
He’s not a home run hire at a power job like Self to Kansas, Cal to Kentucky or something like that. But he exhibits a lot less unknowns than Groce IMO.
1 Like
Shaka Smart must not be better than Underwood either, never was the conference regular season champ and gotta throw out how he did in the tournament as a mid-major.
Can I ask, would Underwood look even better if he beat Michigan and lost by like 4 against Louisville?
Smart also won 70% of conference games and never won less than 11 conference games in a season at VCU. That tells me more than one magical tournament run. Groce had double digit wins in the MAC a whopping one season.
Underwood would probably look better to a lot o f people, but one weekend doens’t do much for me. He’s not guaranteed to succeed at Illinois. But his resume is better than Groce’s pre-Illinois and I don’t even think it’s close.
2 Likes
I respect the opinion. I’ll agree to disagree on this one.
EDIT: My only last point would be look at SFA the years before he got there, heck the year before. He inherited a great program already in place for success. He inherited great talent at OSU as well.
OK St jumped like 70 spots on KenPom from last year. Very drastic improvement.
I get that but does anybody have Illinois and their Kenpom jump from his first year?
Look I’m not saying Underwood is a bad coach. I just think he’s a bad hire at $3 mil a year and a huge risk. He screams Groce 2.0 as a hire, where you hope his success carries over but you’re doubling down on that risk now.
You have yet to provide any clear support for why you think he is Groce 2.0.
Every hire has some risk. And he very well could flame out for all we know. I don’t expect as dramatic improvement in year 1 at Illinois because he doesn’t have Juwan Evans walking through that door.
He’s getting 3 million because that is what the market dictated. They could have gotten a cheaper option, but those are probably riskier hires than Underwood. SFA may have had a good season prior to Underwood’s first year, but it’s not like they were winning their conference every season. The previous coach only had 3 postseason appearances and two regular season conference titles in 13 seasons. Underwood had 3 regular season titles in 3 seasons.
35 spot jump in Groce’s first year
You’re just cherry picking stats now with SFA. The previous coach rebuilt that program and had it in a great spot for Underwood. Did you notice how many times SFA won the conference prior to Underwood? Thy won the conference in the 4 of 6 years prior to Underwood joining. A bit different scenario than what Groce inherited.
Groce 2.0 I think I’ve been pretty clear just not all laid out in one post:
- Both had success at a mid-major
- Both upset a #3 seed as a #14
- Both had the same success their first year at their new school using the previous coaches players.
- Both were a 10 seed in that first year.
Thanks for digging that up. Point clearly toward Underwood in that aspect then. Facts are facts.
I just stated how many times they won the conference before Underwood. He’s got half of their total conference titles and he only coached three seasons there.
As far as your Groce 2.0 bullets:
- Underwood had vastly more success as a mid major coach. Groce was barely a .500 MAC coach. Underwood won over 80% of his games overall.
- Both had upsets in the tournament? Whoop-di-do. Lots of coaches have upsets in the tournament. That’s a very small sample size of comparison. It’s a superficial factor, as is that they were both 10 seeds. Tells us nothing.
- Difference is, Underwood took a mediocre team and got them to become an elite offensive team. Groce marginally improved Illinois from previous seasons.
Underwood has a track record of success over the course of entire seasons prior to coming to Illinois. Groce’s overall record was mediocre at Ohio.
I will say I mis-read so my conference titles were wrong. The previous coach had won their division but not the best record every year.
We can go back and forth all day and looks like we won’t agree. I saw Groce continue to build up Ohio and better their record. I saw Underwood make a great program (relative to the conference) an elite one. Both were improving their teams and sustaining success.
I just disagree on tournaments not carrying a lot of weight. That’s the bread and butter of mid-major success. You have to know how to coach to pull off those upsets. Both did it. You don’t luck into losing in overtime to UNC in the sweet sixteen.
I also think a lot of coaches can create an elite offensive team if they don’t care about defense. But to each their own. Just our opinions. We got a big game coming up and we’re on the same side. Go Blue.
That tournament run for Ohio was 3 games. Never said you luck into it but 3 games tells me less than four seasons do. Groce only fared better than his predecessor in that he made two NCAA tournaments by winning conference tourneys twice. His predecessor had a higher win % in conference though. In 8 seasons at Ohio, Tim O’Shea finished below .500 in MAC play only twice. In four seasons at Ohio, Groce finished below .500 twice. I think it’s a much bigger risk to hire someone based on a tournament run (which is how Groce got the Illinois job as it certainly wasn’t based on his overall record) than it is to hire someone that hasn’t had a big tourney run, but wins consistently. Groce had exactly one good season at Ohio IMO. His last one and that’s what he got hired on. Underwood had three great seasons at SFA. Give me sustained success over a flash in the pan any day. It’s why I think Steve Pikiell is going to end up as a solid hire for Rutgers. He only made one NCAA Tournament (and lost in the first round) in his 11 seasons at Stony Brook, but they won four conference titles for the regular season and won 22+ in 6 of his seasons there, including his last 5.
It’d take more research than I’m willing to do, but I would hypothesize that coaches getting hired off an NCAA tournament run fare worse than coaches that are hired without a tournament run, but track records of regular season success. Groce is the former, Underwood is the latter IMO. Again, he could flame out and he’s not a guaranteed success. But I think there’s a lot more to indicate potential for success prior to Illinois than Groce and I don’t think it’s even close. It’s no surprise that Groce was a .500 coach at Illinois because he was only slightly better than a.500 coach at Ohio.
WRONG. OSU played the toughest schedule in the nation per Ken Pom. Look it up.
OK. And Louisville played a “top” schedule too to grab a top defense. How’d their D look in the second half? Greattttt adjustments in that second half
1 Like
- Miles Bridges is very good at basketball
- Kansas looks way less interested in defense than you’d expect a senior-laden/1 seed/title contender to be.
edit:
3. Nick Ward is also very good at basketball. He’s going to be a 4 year problem.
4. Frank Mason is very good at getting fouled. Seriously he is crafty and obviously a fine shooter, but he does not look a cut above the Walton Jrs/Juwan Evans/ Tyler Dorsey’s of the league.
4 Likes
I think they HAD to pay that, or he would have just stayed at OSU. And I have no idea who else they really could have gotten.
Probably exactly the case, but I feel like $3 million is a lot of money in the coaching world. I have to think they could’ve gotten somebody better for that price but I’m sure they poked around a ton like you alluded to. We seriously don’t even know if Underwood can recruit and he’s being paid like a top coach.
Truthfully Hoiberg comes to mind. Already in Chicago and that franchise seems about ready to blow things up.