That tournament run for Ohio was 3 games. Never said you luck into it but 3 games tells me less than four seasons do. Groce only fared better than his predecessor in that he made two NCAA tournaments by winning conference tourneys twice. His predecessor had a higher win % in conference though. In 8 seasons at Ohio, Tim O'Shea finished below .500 in MAC play only twice. In four seasons at Ohio, Groce finished below .500 twice. I think it's a much bigger risk to hire someone based on a tournament run (which is how Groce got the Illinois job as it certainly wasn't based on his overall record) than it is to hire someone that hasn't had a big tourney run, but wins consistently. Groce had exactly one good season at Ohio IMO. His last one and that's what he got hired on. Underwood had three great seasons at SFA. Give me sustained success over a flash in the pan any day. It's why I think Steve Pikiell is going to end up as a solid hire for Rutgers. He only made one NCAA Tournament (and lost in the first round) in his 11 seasons at Stony Brook, but they won four conference titles for the regular season and won 22+ in 6 of his seasons there, including his last 5.
It'd take more research than I'm willing to do, but I would hypothesize that coaches getting hired off an NCAA tournament run fare worse than coaches that are hired without a tournament run, but track records of regular season success. Groce is the former, Underwood is the latter IMO. Again, he could flame out and he's not a guaranteed success. But I think there's a lot more to indicate potential for success prior to Illinois than Groce and I don't think it's even close. It's no surprise that Groce was a .500 coach at Illinois because he was only slightly better than a.500 coach at Ohio.