There is no NCAA regulation against over signing in basketball — at least none that I’ve been able to find — but with Beilein’s reputation as being the cleanest coach in the biz, I agree with you that it seems unlikely he would over sign w/o a pre-known way out of the bind…and a plan in which the impacted parties know the rules at the front end.
I think it is reasonable to project Wagner to go pro after this season — NBA or Europe. So that reasonably opens one scholarship. If someone else has told the staff he intends to transfer, that potentially opens a second scholarship, but banking on Matthews turning pro at the end of the season seems far-fetched at this point of the year; if he lights it up in Nov/Dec, then the dynamic changes.
I think we’ll have a better read on potential attrition come January – Matthews progress, Watson’s development, Teske’s role. And, of course, the other part of the equation is Class of 2019 recruiting. Does the staff like the options available in the Class of '18 better than the options for the Class of '19? Operating under the assumption of no Wagner in 2018-19, means no Seniors on the roster in '18-19.