I don’t really spend too much time reverse engineering RPI, but VTech being softer than some of our prior ACC competition is probably a good thing with the NY games, Texas who will be pretty seasoned, SC who was I think undefeated 15 games in last year, and UCLA. I think we will take some lumps but be better for it if we don’t see noticeable improvements in the core rotation from the jump.
Going in, could lose any of the NY games, TX, UCLA, SC. Similar to last year, 3-2 through those 5 should be a good measuring stick.
We also don’t play Minny or Rutgers at home this year, so there won’t be quite the RPI anchor there. Like I said, I think those RPI hits can have minor effects on the margins – maybe one slot on the seed line every two years – but they also give JB a chance to play the youngsters and try out some things during games. I can understand both sides, but it’s clearly JB’s preference and I don’t think it’s a huge deal either way.
I was initially confused with the Armstrong State exhibition because we usually play the in-state D2 schools, but it makes sense if you see who one of the assistants is. Pretty neat to face off against him in the house that he built.
I am concerned that the buy games are too easy (just based on looking at their KP rankings). But, it’s hard to be sure either way though at this point and I’m not about to start researching and projecting low major teams, lol.
That’s what I’ve decided too. Projecting low major teams is such a crapshoot that I don’t think there’s any use analyzing those games until the end of the season. It’s mostly luck in my opinion.
No, I don’t. Walton already averaged more last year despite being the tertiary option behind LeVert and Irvin for half of the year. Now he’s the clear cut 2nd guy. Obviously anything is possible though.
i haven’t looked too closely at the 1-bid Conference teams on our schedule, but there is a little bit of an art-form to projecting teams in those conferences.
Howard, for example was a 300+ RPI team last year but I don’t think had any rotational SRs on its roster. In the MEAC, a team returning that much of its roster usually is in for a jump up the standings, which could mean a RPI jump to maybe the 250 range? Not great, but not a huge drag for a game of that caliber.
Similarly Mt St Mary’s looks like it returns 7 of the 9 players in its normal rotation last season, including 2 of its top 3 contributors. Again, seems to indicate a couple game improvement in the Conference standings. MSM was around 250 in the RPI last year, but a couple game improvement this season could have them just inside that 200 RPI mark.
This program’s failure to understand how the RPI works continues. Way too many games against the 300+ types will kill our non-conference strength of schedule once again.
Those games are just part of college basketball. It’s a crap shoot and you hope that you play teams that slightly over achieve and a few of your buy games sneak into the top-200.
Good thing is that a lot of the buy game opponents seem like they return a good chunk of their rosters from last year.
Do you really think our program doesn’t understand how the RPI works? Or do you think, maybe, they understand and choose to schedule some potential tomato cans anyway?
Well they either don’t understand it or don’t care. Either way, it costs us seeding in the tournament every year. Other programs, have figured this out, why haven’t we?
But, I get it. Any ounce of criticism of this program will be met with swift denials by 90% of this board, so please carry on.
That’s besides the point. Scheduling teams likely to be in the 150- 250 RPI range doesn’t make the schedule materially more difficult but it has a big impact on the RPI.
I think the issue is the tournament they’re in. I am curious if it’s worth playing these 2 games at Crisler against Howard 300+ rpi, IUPUI 200+ rpi in order to play a mix of Marquette 90+ rpi, Pitt 43 rpi or SMU 17 rpi. Obviously if you get a 17 rpi out of the deal it’s worth it but is it worth it to play Marquette/Pitt to get Howard/IUPUI. Of course Kennesaw St is awful. At the end of the day it isn’t worth playing in these tournaments Michigan has shown they can just schedule better RPI teams in Texas/UCLA/South Carolina without having to take on teams like Howard/IUPUI. Hopefully after Maui next year they stop with these foolish tournaments.
I understand some of your concern/frustration, but I think you’re putting too much stock in overall SOS ranking. The Tourney Committee generally looks at games in 3 buckets Top50, Top100, Top200.
Record against Top100 is heavily used. Wins against Top50 are generally given more weight.
Any wins against teams over 200 in the rankings (RPI, KenPom, or other computer ranking) are generally discarded and any losses generally docked heavily.
So the difference between a team with a RPI of 305 and a RPI of 215 may fluctuate your team total RPI score slightly, but it won’t really change how the Committee looks at your team resume.
With this year’s schedule, the big questions – at least on paper – are:
can South Carolina stay inside the Top100
can VaTech avoid ACC cellar and stay under 200 RPI
can Mt St Mary’s (or someone else in that range) challenge for its conference title and sneak under 200 RPI