With the roster looking to be almost set and our opponents for next year starting to be clear, what are you expectations for, breakouts, rotation, post season, record, etc.
I say that there is a 9 man rotation of
PG Walton/Spike
SG LeVert/MAAR
SF Dawkins
PF Irvin/Chatman
C Doyle/Donnal
I believe that Chatman will breakout this year. I see an elite 8 run at best.
Final 4 or Bust.
Breakout player (from contributor to star): Irvin. He will play like he did down the stretch for an entire year and be projected as a 1st-round pick after the season. Will be lethal shooting the ball with LeVert and Walton healthy (knock on wood) attacking the basket and drawing defenders.
Starting Five: Walton, LeVert, Irvin, Dawkins, Doyle
Key Bench: Spike, Robinson, Chatman, Wilson
B1G Record: 12-6
Postseason: 5 seed, Sweet 16
SB nations Indiana site has their guy predicting us #7 in the B1G. Amazing piece of homerism in general, but his distaste for UM is impressive.
SB nations Indiana site has their guy predicting us #7 in the B1G. Amazing piece of homerism in general, but his distaste for UM is impressive.
I like to think of myself as a bit more objective than most around here, and even for me, 7 seems ridiculous. We will most likely finish 3-6, with 4-5 being most probable in my opinion.
SB nations Indiana site has their guy predicting us #7 in the B1G. Amazing piece of homerism in general, but his distaste for UM is impressive.That was the guy who went on a Twitter rant about how Caris sucks.
I am going to be optimistic and predict a third-place finish behind Maryland and MSU.
Crean may find a way to weasel his way into the mix and drop us to fourth.
Obviously OSU, Wisconsin, and Purdue won’t be pushovers either but our combination of depth and experience should keep Michigan ahead of them. (I also think this is the year Wisconsin finds itself on the outside of the bubble.) Normally when teams return all their starters they are considered dangerous but for some reason the internet prophets insist on making an exception for us. So it’s time to prove them wrong.
I know I’m in the minority, but I’m not buying the Maryland hype. Lot of talent, but I don’t think Turgeon is a great coach and I believe a big part of their success last year was a down B1G. The conference looks better next year so I predict they are in for a rude awakening of sorts.
They remind me of the NC State team from 2012-13 - came in with a high expectations and were ranked in the top 10 to start the year if I remember correctly. Had a great freshman class mixed with a returning CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown, but Gottfried never got them to gel. I think the same fate hits Maryland, and they don’t crack the top 4 of the B1G standings.
Unlike this year, when Wisconsin seemed a prohibitive favorite, I really think the Big Ten is wide open at the top, so much so that it would not shock me at all if Michigan won it.
My predicted order of finish is: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, MSU, OSU, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois. I think the first seven make the tourney, and Illinois is a bubble team. I may have Purdue 2-3 spots too low, as well. Let’s see how their guards play - obviously their bigs are probably the best in the conference.
I agree LAW - I think there are six teams capable of winning it, and the conference winner may only have 12 or 13 wins. I would rank the top six as follows:
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Michigan St.: Pains me, but Izzo has a lot of depth plus a strong senior leader in Valentine (which he seems to do well with). If he went 12-6 with last year’s squad, he should do at least that next year.
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Indiana: There is enough talent to overcome Crean’s shortcomings as a coach - they will be the most dangerous offensive team in the conference w/Yogi, JB and Williams all returning.
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Michigan: Will be out for revenge after last year. However, although we have some intriguing pieces at the 4/5, bottom line is they are still unproven.
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Wisconsin: Koenig and Hayes are enough to keep Bo’s top-4 streak alive.
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Purdue: Will play old-school “pound it inside” type of ball, but game has evolved. Can’t win just by doing that alone.
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Maryland (as stated in my earlier post)
Where do you see OSU fitting in? I think they have a truckload of top 50 recruits plus a few solid returning pieces. Hard to count them out of the mix.
(I think they’re below Michigan but not necessarily behind Wisconsin or Purdue.)
I think they will be just outside the top six. They do have a lot of young talent, but they seem to be missing a true “blue chip” talent that Matta usually has, i.e. Oden/Sullinger/Russell etc.
As far as OSU, regardless of ranking, that Mitchell kid seems like a real talent to me. I also think KBD is going to be a star. But they’re basically starting over at many key positions, including PG.
I think losing Trice and Dawson will be a big deal for MSU. They also have a huge glut of wing players - Harris, McQuaid, Ahrens, Ellis, Bess, Valentine, Forbes - and I wonder about chemistry, as I imagine Harris anticipates starting and getting a lot of shots, and that may not sit well with the others.
I’m conflicted on Wisconsin. At this point, it’s crazy to bet against Bo Ryan, but man they have lost a LOT. Hayes is really good, but I have a feeling Koenig gets exposed a little with a bigger role. Watch Vitto Brown turn into a really good player. I have no idea what else they have, though.
I think Maryland will be pretty good - can’t see them dropping to 6th.
But is definitely is wide open - any of these scenarios could happen.
Two major issues we must overcome to be considered upper echelon:
- Health of Caris, Derek, and Spike
- Defensive Rebounding
No one at this time can predict what will happen with either
Somebody likes Maryland!!
Similar to the B1G, the national landscape seems pretty wide open as well. Last year, UK, Duke, Wisconsin and AZ all seemed to be a step above the competition in the preseason.
I know a lot of people are high on UNC, but although they have a lot of “good” players, I don’t see a lot of NBA talent on their roster like they traditionally have had with their title teams.
Duke reloaded, but most of their incoming talent seems stacked at the guard/wing positions - no one to really replace Okafor (or even come close to it).
As for UK, I could see them having a season like 2012-13 when they had to replace Davis, MKG and Teague and their freshman that year didn’t quite gel…although I can’t see them missing the NCAAs like they did a few yrs. back.
This could be a season where a star freshman gets hot and leads a team like Cal or LSU to the championship like 'Cuse in '03, or a singular talent like Kemba or Shabazz takes over in March and leads an underdog all the way (Caris perhaps?..we can hope).
Sweet 16
This is a tough one for me because last year I tried an exercise to compare predictions of this board vs. predictions of (supposedly) unbiased media. That whole thing blew up with the injuries last season, but I’ll give it a try:
breakouts - Duncan Robinson. This team didn’t shoot the 3 last year as well as it had the previous few years. Enter Robinson. Not only is he probably the best shooter on the team (as we’ve heard), he’ll have more open looks than anyone did last year because LeVert and Walton will be back (and hopefully Irvin will pick up where he left off, as far as looking for open shooters goes).
rotation - STARTERS Walton, LeVert, Irvin, Robinson, Doyle, BENCH Albrecht, Abdur-Rahkman, Dawkins, Chatman, Wilson (sorry Donnal and Wagner) (and if any of the starters get complacent, this bench had 59 total starts last year).
post season - I like this team enough to win it’s first game and I like Beilein’s coaching enough to win the second game, so I’ll say Sweet 16. Anything above that and I’ll be happy, especially for Caris and Spike.
record - 24-10 including post season
etc. - While it’s nice to imagine that every player will have their best possible season, that’s not going to happen. We should have very good guard play, lots of competition at the 3/4, and Doyle looks like he’s taking the offseason seriously. But do we have that one guy who makes everyone better, like Trey and Nik did a few short years ago? I thought LeVert might be that guy last year, but maybe it turns out to be the trio of LeVert-Walton-Irvin like we did expect last year, except this year the supporting cast should be much better.
Seems like a good overall prediction, Geoff. I agree that there will be a lot of beneficial competition within the rotation, and I think this will extend to positions other than just the four. JB usually needs three bigs (especially with foul trouble against bigger, tougher front courts) so for that reason alone, I expect Donnal will get a few minutes here and there. But I agree that Wilson will be first off the bench at the five.