Big Picture Thoughts

On the court, in the past five years, UM has had 4 tourney appearances, including a berth in the championship game and another Elite 8 trip, and two B1G titles, including one outright. This past year, of course, was a disappointment. Now, essentially everything that went wrong could - massive NBA attrition, a surprise transfer at the weakest/most inexperienced position on the court, injuries to the best players, etc. But it was still a lousy season after the past couple of years.

As for recruiting, they say that it’s not about the ones you miss, it’s the ones you get. And that is somewhat of an open question for the last several guys. Chatman was disappointing this past year, but I still think he’ll be a very good player, and Wilson was injured. Dawkins looks like he was a steal and Rahkman should at least be a contributor. Robinson and Wagner (and Davis) are hard to judge because of their circumstances. Teske looks promising.

But there’s no doubt that, at least as of now, the on-court success hasn’t translated into the jump in recruiting many of us hoped for. And particularly disappointing is that guys we’ve seemed in great shape for haven’t come, like Booker and Kennard, and the trend could continue with guys like Thornton and Battle. Perhaps we’ll see UM go back to taking guys a little down in the recruiting rankings – guys who turned out pretty good, mind you.

I think, however, taking a step back should give comfort. It’s hard with how much info we have on recruiting these days, but it’s too easy to find some 3-minute tape of a guy from the 9th or 10th grade and made some huge judgment. People who are worried about what “MSU fans are saying,” or feel let down because of their time investment into recruiting and then things not going their way, should consider reevaluating their strategy. You might not care if JB acts within certain rules that other coaches don’t follow, or might prefer a slicker coach, but JB is here for the next several years, and the next guy won’t be a Calipari-type. And the results have been pretty good when you look big picture.

In the meantime, people are coming up with some wild thoughts, like Davis was a panic offer or they should’ve taken Edwards instead. Remember that Edwards at this point in his career was averaging four or five points a game. JB and co clearly preferred Davis, and liked him enough to offer him at an early stage – this wasn’t a late-game spring signing.

Let’s see how the roster shakes out. Let’s see how Davis seems after a summer on the AAU circuit. Let’s see how the team does next season. Maybe it will all go terribly, or maybe last season will be revealed to be an anomaly. In any event, try to have some fun along the way.

Calling a recruit a head-scratcher isn’t the same thing as not having fun, or for that matter, giving up on the team. I know some comments on Davis have been over-the-top–some people have applied aggression to the program as a whole, but most comments have been to me, perfectly reasonable, focusing on how the signing saps our scholarships.
As for me, I enjoyed this last season quite a lot. The pressure was off once the injuries started and the NCAA tournament bid was a goner. It was nice to see Spike leading and to see bench players getting their chance. I loved seeing those managers get into games. That was awesome. But it still makes sense to have aspirations and to logically think that the team could’ve recruited better post-championship game.

I can sum up your post in one sentence - things don’t look very good, but have patience.

Personally, I hate patience, it’s never been my strongsuit. If the recruiting/talent trajectory were linear, that would be one thing, but to see it regress 3 years in a row is pretty disturbing. Only so long it can be ignored.

Calling a recruit a head-scratcher isn't the same thing as not having fun, or for that matter, giving up on the team. I know some comments on Davis have been over-the-top--some people have applied aggression to the program as a whole, but most comments have been to me, perfectly reasonable, focusing on how the signing saps our scholarships. As for me, I enjoyed this last season quite a lot. The pressure was off once the injuries started and the NCAA tournament bid was a goner. It was nice to see Spike leading and to see bench players getting their chance. I loved seeing those managers get into games. That was awesome. But it still makes sense to have aspirations and to logically think that the team could've recruited better post-championship game.

I agree with everything except the ratio of perfectly reasonable vs “aggressive” comments. And the sheer number and vitriol of the latter make the board mostly unenjoyable for long stretches.

So say there are two spots left in 2015/2016 combined…

-What (reasonable) combination of prospects would you prefer?
-What do you think is most likely? How would you feel about that group?

No doubt the 2 hypothetical spots must be utilized on a PG/Guard/Wing. Need ballhandling creators that can shoot off the bounce, preferably with 1) speed/lateral agility 2) verticality.

Reasonable combination - I honestly don’t know, the bar is pretty low at this point.

Preference - PG is Quentin Goodin for me, most upside and immediate impact as a 2 way player for the PG spot on our current board. Wing is Jaylen Brown, but since that isn’t happening, its Josh Langford, hands down.

Most likely - 2 kids we’ve never heard of that are most likely project types.

So say there are two spots left in 2015/2016 combined...

-What (reasonable) combination of prospects would you prefer?
-What do you think is most likely? How would you feel about that group?

As I said in the Davis commitment thread, I think we have two additional scholarships to work with. I think we will end up with Williams this year and a PG (probably not one that currently has an offer) or combo guard next year.

I would feel pretty good, but not great about the team going forward. I think for 2016-2017, we’d have 5 bigs on the roster, which is probably one too many. We’d have 2 PGs (a senior and a freshman) and 6 wings. Of the 8 perimeter players, we’d have 2 guys that are probably “just shooters” (Dawkins and Robinson), 3 guys that are probably/hopefully “shooters plus” (Williams, Walton, and Irvin), 2 guys who can hopefully create a bit while not being great shooters (MAAR and Kam) and a mystery PG.

Assuming normal attrition, we would take a PG and wing in 2017.

So say there are two spots left in 2015/2016 combined...

-What (reasonable) combination of prospects would you prefer?
-What do you think is most likely? How would you feel about that group?

Looking at 2015-16, so far UM has Wagner (a big wing/4), Teske (5), Davis (5). Wilson has 2015 eligibility, and is a perhaps a 4 or 5. Maybe Wilson (or Davis) could “migrate” down a slot, as JB says, as they become upperclassmen, but it’s probably best not to count on it. Also, 2014 had Dawkins, a 3, Rakhman, a combo-guard, probably more of a two, Chatman, who may end up being pretty versatile but seems ideal for now as a 4, Doyle, a 5, with Donnal having '14 eligibility as a 5, perhaps playing 4 later on. I don’t know who you count Robinson, but that’s another guy who could play 2-4 but seems safest to put at 3 for now. As folks have noted, that seems heavily weighted to the front court.

Assuming there are two spots in '15-'16, I would think we’d really be looking for backcourt players, a PG and a SG or wing who was at least a capable ball handler. If those two end up being Langford and Winston, I’d feel pretty darn good. I’m pretty high on Wagner and Teske. I haven’t seen enough film on Davis. If it’s, say, Williams and Ramsey, I’d still feel quite good, though not quite as bullish. If it’s two spring pick-ups we’d never heard of, I’d be a little worried, although the team’s ability to find guys late who prove to be pretty good would at least give me hope that we’d be pretty competitive.

As for most likely, it’s hard to say. I still think if you look at the offers for guys like Chatman, Wilson, and Teske, UM generally is getting fairly sought after recruits. Wagner is a bit hard to judge. On the other hand, Rakhman and Dawkins were spring guys, and Davis seems like a bit of a reach, although based on past recruits I wouldn’t be surprised if he was on top 150 lists by fall. I guess I’d probably say the middle road is most likely, a couple of guys who are top 100 or 150 types, but not top 25 guys.

Im surprised everyone just seeing dawkins as a straight shooter. No one sees his potential any where else? The kid can sky and run the floor. I don’t see why he can’t develop a good penetration/pull up game.

Im surprised everyone just seeing dawkins as a straight shooter. No one sees his potential any where else? The kid can sky and run the floor. I don't see why he can't develop a good penetration/pull up game.

I agree that Dawkins has potential to be a more complete player. Some like THJr realize that potential and grow their games, while others (GRIII) didn’t grow it enough. Maybe if Glenn had stayed another year or want forced to play the four but that is a discussion for another day.

All we can really do is be patient, but I’d still love an answer to the question of why we would actually offer Davis now, before Brown decided and before we know if LeVert is coming back. Davis wasn’t going anywhere…even assuming the coaches saw something in him, that he’s a diamond in the rough that will turn out to be a better player than he looks at this point, he would still be available if we had waited a month or two (or more) to extend an offer, after other possibilities had shaken themselves out. There was absolutely nothing to be lost by waiting, so why rush?

All we can really do is be patient, but I'd still love an answer to the question of why we would actually offer Davis now, before Brown decided and before we know if LeVert is coming back. Davis wasn't going anywhere...even assuming the coaches saw something in him, that he's a diamond in the rough that will turn out to be a better player than he looks at this point, he would still be available if we had waited a month or two (or more) to extend an offer, after other possibilities had shaken themselves out.

Not sure Davis affects Brown or LeVert at all.

Not directly, no, but if we were still going to try to grab someone like Williams for 2015 to fill LeVert’s spot, then taking Davis before we see how that plays out means so we don’t have a spot open for Williams after 2015-2016 without tossing someone else overboard, or crossing our fingers that someone like Irvin leaves early. Brown might not present the same problem, since he’s a likely one-and-done, but you never know…injuries happen.

Again, what’s the justification for offering Davis now, as opposed to a month or two from now?

The justification is that he played well the first weekend, they liked him and wanted to take him before other people get involved (recruitments can move quickly in the summer). This is obviously debatable, but it’s the rationale for offering someone in April – three days after a live period.

Again, I don’t think it would affect Kenny Williams either – see the fact that Beilein was in Virginia on Friday visiting with Kenny.

Come on, Dylan…Davis wasn’t going to get flooded with offers over the next few weeks (and certainly not from teams at the level of Michgan), and you know that. He just isn’t that good, and a weekend of decent play doesn’t change that. Interest in him was not exploding. Even if Beilein was worried that some minor program would come along and snatch such a valuable prize away, he could have advertised enough interest in Davis to keep him from committing elsewhere for a while. Again, there was NO rational reason not to have waited on this for at least a few weeks.

As far as Williams, Beilen may still grab him, but the fact remains that doing so with Davis already committed will force him to make a decision about ditching someone else for 2016 that he might have avoided by waiting a few weeks. Maybe, as some here have proposed, he already knows that decisions have been made concerning Hatch or Donnal, but he claims not.

MChem83, you claim interest in Davis was not gaining steam from other schools, but that’s not what has been reported. Reportedly, ND and Wisconsin were watching him closely. SpartanMag had a whole write up on his most recent tournament - seems to me they probably don’t go around covering kids whom MSU has no interest in.

As far as the scholarship situation, in addition to it being a year away when anything can happen, there has been a lot of discussion that Davis could play a year of prep ball and enroll in 2017.

As I said… You can debate to what degree he was receiving more interest, but he definitely played well. We hope to check him out next weekend in Indy.

But I guess the point is, what would waiting to offer Davis give you? Michigan isn’t recruiting many other bigs in the class so if they wanted a big, why not take him now?

As for the decision to take a big… I go back and forth on it because it seems to offset the roster balance, but at the same time post play was a major weakness this year, so adding more bodies/options could work out.

Lots of schools “watch” lots of players and keep tabs on their progress and status. Simply “playing well” for a couple games didn’t suddenly vault Davis’ status well above what it had been, though. And you have yet to come close to convincing me that there was any likelihood that someone would have come along and snatched Davis from under our noses any time between now and a month from now. I know that it’s standard practice to try to reach hard and find anything possible to like about a commit when we’re really underwhelmed by him, but he just isn’t that big a deal.

As far as what waiting would get, seriously? I already explained what waiting would get as far as guards go. As far as bigs (assuming we were still bound and determined to take another one, even if we didn’t really need him), waiting lets you see which of the bigs you’re interested in develops better and shows more promise, and reduces your chances of whiffing on the wrong one. When your choices are among a lot of non-elite prospects who have a lot of improving to do, that’s an advantage. When there is zero advantage to taking someone right now, there doesn’t have to be much advantage to waiting a month to make it worthwhile. If Swanigen would have taken an offer from us on the spot, then there would have been no reason to wait, sure…but we did not have that luxury.

2000 recruiting class, Chris Wilcox (Swanigan) Ranked 23rd vs Chris Kaman (Austin Davis) Unranked. Who had the better Career? You never know until you know right? IJS

Lots of schools “watch” lots of players and keep tabs on their progress and status. Simply “playing well” for a couple games didn’t suddenly vault Davis’ status well above what it had been, though. And you have yet to come close to convincing me that there was any likelihood that someone would have come along and snatched Davis from under our noses any time between now and a month from now. I know that it’s standard practice to try to reach hard and find anything possible to like about a commit when we’re really underwhelmed by him, but he just isn’t that big a deal.

As far as what waiting would get, seriously? I already explained what waiting would get as far as guards go. As far as bigs (assuming we were still bound and determined to take another one, even if we didn’t really need him), waiting lets you see which of the bigs you’re interested in develops better and shows more promise, and reduces your chances of whiffing on the wrong one. When your choices are among a lot of non-elite prospects who have a lot of improving to do, that’s an advantage. When there is zero advantage to taking someone right now, there doesn’t have to be much advantage to waiting a month to make it worthwhile. If Swanigen would have taken an offer from us on the spot, then there would have been no reason to wait, sure…but we did not have that luxury.

Chris Wilcox won a NCAA championship and was the 8th pick overall. I get what your trying to do but I’ll take a guy like Wilcox who helps us win a NC and is the 8th pick over Kaman any day of the week.